Winter Storm Forecast

This is a tough one …

1. Temperatures:
   1. Above 32 and it melts/compacts more easily. Less snow accumulation, very little on roads in the valleys. 
   2. Below 32 and it accumulates more easily. More accumulation, even on the roads in the valleys.
2. Precipitation Intensity:
   1. Heavy precipitation rate leads to colder temperatures, which means more accumulation, including the roads in the valleys.
   2. Light precipitation rate allows the higher sun angle to warm the temperatures just enough to induce more melting and to keep the roads in the valleys wet.
3. Storm Track:
   1. In Close to the Coast leads to more and heavier precipitation, colder temperatures meaning more snow.
   2. A little more off shore leads to less and lighter precipitation, warmer temperatures meaning less snow.

 
The toughest part is number one listed above. This time of year, with the higher sun angle, it is harder to keep the temperature below freezing during the day. Thick clouds, and steady moderate to at times heavy precipitation is the about the only way to do it.

The heaviest snow should be to our south (think Lancaster, York, Gettysburg) and to our east (think Allentown, Bethlehem). So any shift northwest, and we could get several more inches.

However, if you live near State College on north, you may not get much at all, just a couple of inches. So a shift southeast could give us much less snow.

A tough forecast, with many unresolved questions. But this is my best guess. It may be great or a disaster or just ok. Too much uncertainty.  But one thing is certain … winter is still not letting go (another chance for snow around the upcoming weekend too … ba humbug I say!)

Enjoy.