Winter Slop Storm #3

That is right. This is slop storm #3.

The first was the middle of Nov (8” snow, some ice then rain), the second was middle of January (3” snow, ice, then rain), and now the middle of Feb we have #3.

A rather typical forecast for this kind of storm = a few to several hour period of snow, then sleet/freezing rain, followed by all rain. Conclusion = horrible to clear since it will be heavy and wet.

I feel confident in the forecast in getting 3-5” of snow and sleet added together. The NWS records sleet accumulation as snow accumulation in its record keeping. So, for example 1” of sleet will be recorded as 1” snow. Therefore, I am including both in my 3-5”.

Couple thoughts as to what could go wrong:

1. Dry air:
   1. Dry air from the big high pressure to our north, could evaporate up to several hours of light snow during the night, thus reducing our snow by about 1” or so.
   2. Deep moisture will overcome the dry air from the big high more rapidly and moderate snow breaks out sooner, thus increasing our snow by 1” or so.
2. Heavy Precipitation:
   1. Slows the transition from snow to sleet by an hour or two, thus increasing our snow by 1” or so.
   2. Does not develop until the snow transitions to sleet, reducing our snow by 1” or so.

 
After this storm we do have another storm for Fri, but that is looking wet, and very little chance for white, unless a possible twist develops along the coast, causing the rain to end as snow. Right now, I doubt that will happen, but I will keep an eye on it. There will be another storm the following week that looks rather wintery.

Until then, enjoy.