Winter Remains

Winter Remains

I have noticed a trend this winter. Small snows of less than 3" I have done well with, but snows greater than 3" I have been overdone: see this past week as prime example. Have to work on that. I think I will do better, because I learned how to use a new tool this week: 700 mb vertical velocity and "sandsnow". 

But the weather never sleep, so on with this week and the theme is that winter remains. This theme ought to continue through most of February, although the worst of the cold should remain in the center of the nation. This means that we will still get cold, but the extreme shots of cold ought to be more west than east like right now. This also means more juicy storms and potential for bigger snows, ice and rain. This is how I see this week:

Today: strong storm to our north, bringing a strong arctic front through late in the day. It will become windy, and the snow will fall from late morning on and off through the late afternoon. Even colder air will flood in tonight from the NW.

Sunday-Monday: Very cold Sunday but new storm (with origins from the other side of the pole) will be producing snow in the Ohio Valley already. This snow should not impact us all that much, maybe a 1/2 -1” Sunday night , if that. This storm will usher in the nastiest cold wave we have had this winter and probably will have all winter long.  

Tue-Thu: COLD … COLD … COLD.  Temps struggling to reach 10 Tue/Wed and still in teens Thu with near zero Tue, below zero Wed morning, and possibly Thu.   

Fri-Sun: Things get more interesting. Weak storm passes to our north late Thu but we only get clouds from it, nothing else. This sets the stage for moisture to surge ahead of a couple of storms coming out of the southern plains. The first one should not be all that big. But have decent moisture with it. Snow should break out Friday night into Sat. with this one. I think the first wave is 95% snow. This should be a "glorified warm front" as there will be no real fresh cold air behind it. The second stronger storm should come toward us Sun. The second will be warmer and probably be more of a 30% snow, 70% ice/rain.

The weather appears to stay more active after this as well, and not as cold, but certainly no major sustained warm up is in sight.  

Specifics:

Today: Snow arriving this morning, ending late in the day as snow showers/squalls. About 2” total, locally higher toward Pottsville/St Clair. Becoming very windy late and through the night.  Cold. High: 26. Low: 10

Sunday: Windy with more clouds than sunshine. Some light snow possible overnight, as temps warm into the 20s toward Mon morning.  High: 16. low: 25.

Monday: Increasing sunshine, increasing winds and decreasing temps. High: 29. Low: 0.

Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, very cold. Gusty winds. High: 8. Low: -5.

Wednesday: Partly to mostly sunny and cold. High: 10 Low: 1.

Thursday: Becoming partly cloudy, still cold. High: 20. Low: 15.

Friday: Increasing clouds. Milder but still cold. Snow arriving late and overnight. Accumulations less than 4.” High: 28. Low: 24.

Saturday: Snow ending. Mostly cloudy. High: 33. Low: 26.

Sunday: Cloudy with snow, ice and a cold rain. Chilly and raw. High: 35. Low: 32.