Winter Missing in Action ... for Now

But when is the question?  And in what form?  Well, if history is correct, snow is what we the people equate with winter. No snow = no winter. Lots of snow = winter. The temperatures don’t matter too much over-all. What we remember is the snow.  Take last winter. How do you remember it?  What impression did it leave?  Cold and snowy right? 

​It was cold and snowy as a whole. But December was mild. In fact Christmas Eve temperatures soared to near 60 and then again near 60 on the 27th.  This Dec will be very mild through the first half. It will get warm this weekend into Monday, and stay quite mild through next Wed. So is winter coming?  I believe yes. And by the end of the winter season next March I would not be surprised if our impression of this winter is cold and snowy.

First things first. The upcoming warm 7 days. One beautiful weekend. Not every day will feature a whole lot of sunshine as I am concerned about a lot of low level moisture being trapped (like yesterday and earlier today). Some partial sunshine will occur, but I do not expect to see bright clear blue skies all day long. This warmth will end with a rain storm on Mon. A second storm will bring possible blizzard conditions to the upper plains. This will push a front through on Thursday. It is after this that things get interesting.

A wave of low pressure could develop the weekend of the 20th and move NE toward our region. With cold air pressing into our area, wet snow and/or a cold rain could be in the forecast Sun/Mon Dec 20/21. Also, the rest of the week leading up to Christmas is looking interesting. Stormy with cold air available.  

I do not believe winter will lock in at this point. I feel it will come and go through the rest of Dec and into Jan. But by mid –January the pattern should begin to lock into a steadier winter pattern. Winter should rage in all its fury Feb and into March. Sounds a bit like last year, doesn’t it?
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Warm: After seasonal weather most of this week, the warmth is coming back. Similar to Thanksgiving week, just more rain. Temps averaging around 60 Fri – Mon.
2. Fly in the Ointment: The struggle could be the low level clouds getting stuck. The sun is rather ineffective in burning the clouds off, so there will likely be more clouds than sun esp. Sat and Sun.  This could keep temps several degrees lower.  
3. Rain: Heavy rain likely Monday as front moves through. Shower or two Wed night or Thu and then wetter system Sat – Mon time frame is possible.   
4. Energy Efficient Nights: Temps will likely stay near or above 50 Sat and Sun nights.     
5. Winds: Windy after front passes Monday/Monday night.  
6. First 1” of Snow: The system around the 18/19th could provide our first chance for snow. Please note I am only asking about the first 1” … not snowstorm.  

 
Thursday: 56. Mostly sunny afternoon.  
Friday: 58. Low clouds, fog, then sunshine.
Saturday: 57. Mix of sun and clouds.
Sunday: 60. Becoming mostly cloudy. Drizzle and mild temps overnight.     
Monday: 63. Cloudy. Rain. Possibly heavy. Warm.                 
Tuesday: 52. Partly cloudy. Breezy.
Wednesday: 52. Becoming mostly cloudy.      

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