Will Harvey impact us? Yes. But nothing to worry about.
Tropical Depression Harvey is slowly making his way through toward the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on the way to our area, however, the upper level flow is also going to push Harvey increasingly to the east over time.
Harvey still has a huge pocket of Tropical Moisture with him. This will surge into the southern half of the state. Then the fun begins, from a forecast point of view. What I mean is this: The storm will fizzle and die out. The circulation will cease. This is good from the standpoint of focused heavy rain. But an upper level trough will capture the energy, and help develop a new low to the east of the mountains, in NC/VA. This new low will then move NE and deepen. An increasingly expansive and heavy rain shield will develop along with this new low-pressure area.
This new low is NOT a tropical low, it is a more typical or extra-tropical low-pressure area. This means that it is likely that the models are too far E/SE with the storm and resulting rain. Latest example was Tue. I measured .25” of rain, not a lot that’s for sure, but a whole lot more than most models had. In fact only the RGEM and NAM showed this kind of possibility. And their “solutions” were thrown out by most forecasters. Thus I kept hearing scattered showers possible. It was one long scattered shower we had. It was light, but it was steady.
So, I feel that the models are once again making the same kind of mistake. I expect a soaking rain of around 1” with locally higher amounts from the remnants of Harvey.
Sunday, it clears and turns milder, then Mon and Tue look very nice and mild. Wed we start seeing some changes as a new impressively strong tough develops over the central/eastern US. This trough will bring us some showers Wed, then steadier rain Thu/Fri followed by some rather chilly air, although the coldest of the air will remain to our west.
The tropics are one of concern for us beyond the next 7 days.
Friday: Sun and clouds. Refreshingly cool with a breeze.
Saturday: Fading sunshine. Cool with showers developing. Rain overnight.
Sunday: Clearing skies. Milder.
Monday: Mostly sunny. Beautiful. Warm.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Beautiful. Warm.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Chance for showers or a thunderstorm.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Cooler. Chance for rain.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.