What a Difference a Week Makes!

Remember last week at this time?  Sunny and very warm. Temps in the mid 80's and ground drying out? Well, things change. It is now Autumn. 

Discussion:

I did not update late yesterday because the going forecast looked really good. I will be making some minor adjustments to the forecast today and tomorrow, as it will be a little cooler, esp. today due to the rain. Other than that what I have out looks really good for now.

This system will linger through Saturday, before leaving on Sunday. The total rainfall expected will be closer to 2” with locally higher amounts possible. But this was covered on Monday’s discussion quite well.

Still could be a stray shower on Sunday, but don’t change any outdoor plans you may have, it looks pretty dry. And so does most of next week. Lots of sunshine starting Monday and lasting through to Friday. This of course depends on the path of soon to be hurricane Matthew in the Caribbean.

Some notes on soon to be Hurricane Matthew:

• It has a large circulation already.  
• Where does it track?  Tough to tell. Being large it will not get pushed around by fronts all that easily. If anything it will act to slow or stall fronts. Large hurricanes are big players.
• You cannot trust the models at this point. Not one model is being all that consistent.
• My best guess as to the areas under the greatest threat are the NC coast (Cape Hatteras) and Cape Cod.  There is a strong possibility that it stays harmlessly off shore. More details to come.    

Other than that there is not much to talk about. The rainstorm will impact us through much of the weekend, and then nice weather follows for much of next week.