We have a western Atlantic ridge to our east, and a deepening trough to our west. This will bring large amounts of tropical moisture into our area leading to heavy showers and storms. In some ways, like last week.
NOTE: There are similarities to this weeks weather pattern when compared to last week and that is bad news. However one HUGE difference is that we do NOT have an upper level low sitting over the Ohio Valley rotating pieces of energy around it enhancing rain fall. Another difference is that the flow aloft will be more SW rather than due S. This will help to limit the repeated or training of rain over the same location for 2-3 hours like last week.
CONCLUSION: Heavy rain is possible this week, and likely will occur, but be shorter in duration and more spread out over time.
RISK: Our ground is super saturated. Stream flow is very high. Localized flash flooding is a threat for most of the week. But with each dry day or day without heavy rain, the threat will lessen.
BEYOND THIS WEEK: The western Atlantic ridge looks to build westward and give us warm/very warm days with high humidity with a lessening chance for showers/storms. We may try to reach 90 by late next weekend and/or early next week (Aug 6-9). There is a chance for consecutive days attempting to reach 90 ... after that is cools off again. No enduring heat waves coming. Also, no extended dry spells either.