It is now August. It is warm and sunny. And I am laughing at statistics. The official word out of State College NWS office for our region of central PA is that July was mild and dry. Yes, statistically the two cities that are official climate stations Harrisburg, and Williamsport were drier than average. But how does that reflect upon the areas that were wet? I mean, I measured over 5” for the month. That is above average. And I know other areas got even more than what I measured. So two little rain gauges statistically speak for all of central PA? Gotta laugh. Nothing else you can do. Just laugh.
On to this coming week … no laughing matter coming up. This is a tougher forecast this week. Trough and ridge will be duking it out and we are near the battle zone. This means cooler weather, wetter weather maybe. All depends on strength and timing of these pesky areas of weak low pressure. So let’s get to the questions:
Questions for Forecast:
1. Will storms be severe Monday? It will be hot and humid. Timing looks to be very late in the day or at night. So that seems to point so some severe storms being possible.
2. How cool do we really get after front passes on Mon night? Could it be a step by step cooling process? Each day cooler for a few days?
3. What are the chances for rain once past Tue? Tough call. Weak chance wed night into Thu and bigger chance Fri or all bundled together to bigger storm with heavier rain Thu into Thu night. Very uncertain at this time. Timing these systems beyond 2 days this time of year is very difficult at best.
4. What about next weekend? Toss up. Could be dry is front pushes far enough south. I have some doubts that it will. This is the real push of cool air on Fri (delayed again as it was Wed, now its Friday)
5. How cool is cool? Much ballyhooed talk of “cool” August for the east. Not buying it. Yes it will grow cooler. I do not see any really cool days outside of an all-day rain. Most days will hit 80 which is not really all that cool. It is seasonal for this time of year. And I see us warming again after next weekend.
Sunday: 88. Mostly sunny.
Monday: 91. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Showers/storms likely.
Tuesday: 84. Mostly sunny. Less humid.
Wednesday: 82. Increasing clouds late. Showers possible overnight
Thursday: 78. Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely. More humid.
Friday: 75. Mostly cloudy. Showers ending by afternoon. Clearing at night.
Saturday: 75. Partly sunny. Shower possible esp. south.
Sunday: 81. Mostly sunny. Late day clouds and showers possible at night. Very pleasant.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.