Weather thru Labor Day - Update #2

Friday Update: Some changes are warranted, but I still think the modeling is overstating the coverage of showers and storms over the weekend, thus cutting temps too much. But a weak boundary with lots of moisture to work with will be enough to spack some showers/storms to drop our temps a little. Here are the changes: 


Sat: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Late day shower or storm is possible, esp. late.  High: 87. Low: 67 


Sun: Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Shower or storm possible anytime during the afternoon. High: 86. Low: 68


Mon (Labor Day): Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Showers and storms likely late. High: 88. Low: 68  

Midweek Update: No real changes for the rest of the week. Heavy showers and storms have hit sections of the state hard today, but we have missed out so far. Not complaining. 


The big question is Sun - Mon. A strong cold front will cross Monday bringing in a shot of September like air for Tue-Wed. But for Labor day that means some strong storms are possible to likely. watch out for that. 


What about temps?  That is tricky. The models point to some weak disturbance and moisture in the atmosphere that they are predicting will cause widespread showers on Sunday. I think its over done. But what if there are more clouds and a few showers?  Then the 90 degrees will be too high. Tough call. Thu - Sat should be dry. But Sunday?  


Right now I am leaving Sunday and Monday essentially alone. Highs should approach 90 both days (with enough sunshine). Monday I am more confident as models are notorious for understating high temps prior to a cold front approaching because they create too many clouds too fast, thus lowering temps. Anyway, hot and humid Monday with strong storms likely late. 

Review of the Past Week:

It was a pretty nice, typical week for late August, as it was warm and humid for the most part. The forecast called for rain on Friday which was not good, so the change was good there. I was too warm with Thu but that was also due to the rain coming in earlier. Interesting that not everybody got rain on Thu but if you got a shower/thundershower it may have rained really hard. It did here at the house:  ½” in about 15 minutes.  I am grading this week with a B+. Thu and Fri were too warm. But that was before the update. Making a seven day forecast and not changing it a few times every day is tough. But this way, we know what was right and what was not. The way it should be.  [Anybody can make ten forecasts, all being different, and then say they were right. But which forecast are they talking about?]

Overview:

The week coming up could be very challenging to forecast:

The models could not be further apart. As you can see below, they are at complete odds with each other for over Labor Day. One would give a heat wave, and the other a possible flooding rain.  I am leaning toward the warmth, but not a heat wave. A ridge should build in toward the weekend. This will give us some very warm weather. But before this occurs, a heat wave will build over the central US, and we will be on the NE edge. This means we will be in the battle zone of heat and cool. Thunderstorms and rain will be likely. Some of this could be rather heavy. These bouts will occur mid week.

GEM model showing cool air invading the area late Monday as trough digs in.

Euro Model showing a heat wave dominating our area and the cool air way out in MT and ND.

Specifics: 

Sunday: A beautiful day with low humidity, and plenty of sunshine. Daytime highs near 82, nighttime lows near 54.

Monday: Another nice day but some storms may try to drop south out of NY very late. It will become a little more humid. Daytime highs near 84, nighttime lows near 60.

Tuesday: Sun and clouds, as well as more humid. Some showers and storms are possible late in the day, but esp. at night. Daytime highs near 84, nighttime lows near 65.

Wednesday: At least partly sunny, very warm and humid. Showers and storms are likely with some heavy rain. Expect up to 1” locally with more in thunderstorms. Daytime highs near 86 and nighttime lows near 68.  

Thursday: Becoming mostly sunny, drier and less humid. Daytime highs near 83, nighttime lows near 63. 

Friday: Another winner, just a little bit warmer in the afternoon, with plenty of sunshine and some increase in humidity. Daytime highs near 85, nighttime lows near 64.

Saturday: Lots of sunshine, becoming hot and humid. Daytime highs near 87, nighttime lows near 66.

Sunday:   Another hot day with humidity. Daytime highs near 90, nighttime lows near 68.

Hint thru September 8: Labor Day looks hot, but a weak boundary may be lurking nearby. It could produce a shower or thundershower. The heat should end early in the week. I would look for a mostly dry week after cold front on Tue. I expect it to be cooler, but typical for early September.