Weather thru June 8

Review:  The heat came. It got hot and it looks like it is our first heat wave of the year. It will come to an end pretty quickly late Sunday. But not all went as planned. Tuesday was one of those days that I wish I had gone with my initial gut feeling. I first thought it might stay cloudy and cool with temps in the low 60s … but I rejected it and changed my forecast to mid 70s. Oops!  It was over all a pretty good week as it turned out pretty much as expected. 

This coming week will be a little bit different and more challenging. It will be much cooler, and wetter, perhaps much wetter.  The tropics may get involved late in the week and will be a huge factor in us getting a bit of rain or a lot of rain. It will be fairly seasonal for temps though.

This is how I see it:

Sun: Still hot, with sun mixing with clouds. Some big storms will be rolling through late in the day toward evening.  There is a good chance of some being severe, with strong winds, heavy rain, lots of lightning and perhaps hail.  Temperatures will soar quickly to the upper 80s. It will be pretty humid.   

Mon:  Much cooler with slow clearing late. Showers could linger, esp. early in the day. Temperatures should only rise a little into the lower 70s.  

Tue-Thu: very pleasant temperatures these three days with highs in the mid to upper 70s. It should feature lots of sunshine Tue & Wed, with a refreshing breeze. It will be great open the window weather. But by Thu some clouds could increase late in the day as moisture works our way again. It should remain dry though.

Fri-Sun: This is where it gets challenging.  I’ll list the possibilities:

1. Ridge protects us from western and southern moisture so we warm up well into the 80s again with some strong storms coming at the end of the next weekend/early the next week.  This is the least likely scenario, although there is some support.  
   
2. A tropical storm develops in the Gulf of Mexico, and crosses FL and just inland up the East Coast, dumping heavy, possibly flooding rains along its path. This is possible, and has some forecast support but it does not seem to be the best option at this time.  
   
3. Clouds and showers/rain occurs off and on in a very warm, humid air mass. Tropical moisture surges northward, even as tropical system heads off east coast out to sea. We get a good soaking with 2 or more inches of rain through the weekend and into the next week.  This seems to be the most likely scenario for us at this time.  
   

So my forecast is choice number 3. Expect clouds and sunshine, increasing humidity and scattered showers/Thunderstorms Fri – Sun (best chances being Fri and Sat and again Mon) with some heavy downpours possible with any showers/storms. Highs should be near 80 or even lower 80s.  

Hint thru June 15: I do not expect to see any real heat returning, as the pattern keeps it cool in the central US. However, I do not expect it to be really cool here. A seasonal June week is expected, that should start wet with rain/storms, but then become dry, and warming up as the week progresses.