Good Morning on this Dreary Friday
Special update to adjust these next couple of days, and to give a special heads up for the Thanksgiving Holiday travel mess that is likely to be coming. First, Today through Sunday:
Today: cloudy, light rain, drizzle on and off. Milder than Thur. High: 52. Low: 46
Saturday: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny, becoming windy and turning colder late. Temps holding steady, but dropping late. Very cold at night. High: 47. Low: 23
Sunday: Cold, windy, with partly sunny skies. Flurries and a snow shower possible. Winter like. High: 28. Low: 20.
Next week: Very winter-like for Thanksgiving week. Monday temps will be around 30, mid 30s Tue, again on Wed, and then 20s Thu and 30s for Fri before 40s for Sat. But Tue – Wed is the point of strong interest.
A strong disturbance will be moving out of the SW US. Anytime a system brings some good moisture to that part of the nation, and then moves east it becomes a big weather maker. So I have been keeping my eye on it. Right now, with all the cold air coming down this weekend into early next week and another strong push of cold air for later next week, the stage is set for a strong N’oreaster to roar up the east coast from out of the central Gulf coast region. This will be a moisture laden system. The biggest question we have is the temperature profiles. Right now I would say we would see at least some accumulating wet snow. I am leaning toward several inches at this time. The mountains to our North and northeast could be clocked with heavy snow up to a foot.
This will likely impact this area from late Tue to late Wed. This storm will definitely affect travel on the busiest travel day of the year. So be prepared if you are traveling to make adjustments if necessary. A White Thanksgiving seems quite possible to even likely right now. Stay tuned.
Happy Monday Morning!
What a beautiful morning this morning is. Bright sunshine, mild temperatures. Too bad it will not last. Enjoy it. The winds will pick up later, and become gusty as they bring in colder air again.
This past week, not too bad for the forecast, just too slow in the timing for this past weekend. It warmed up, and rains came through … just 18 hours faster than I thought. I have been doing this, as the pattern has been progressive. Have to learn from this as we head into the winter. I would give this past week a B again. Over all pattern very good, timing off a little.
Overview for Coming Week:
High pressure will be in control for the early to mid portion of the week. It will be cool though as the High is to our north. Meanwhile a one two punch of very cold winter like air masses from NW Canada will be on the move: first Northern Rockies then spreading east. The first will push east but lost steam as main trough digs into the central states. How this comes east is not yet determined. It is likely a significant storm will develop. But does it go just to our west through the eastern Great Lakes/Ohio valley, or through the Mid-Atlantic States and deepen rapidly as it heads just SE of New England. Either case will bring us some good rains. But one will keep us about 40 and rain, the other about 50 and rain.
Behind this will be some very cold air. Temperatures on Sunday are likely to drop during the day and do not be surprised to see some snow showers develop. This should continue Sunday night into Monday. The ground may be white, with perhaps a local 1” here or there?
The pattern is going to where I expected. Cold is building in Western and Northern Canada. It is threatening to take over the pattern during the next 10 – 14 days and then beyond. Starting next weekend, we have to begin to talk about the potential for snow on a regular basis. Yes, it is getting close to December so we should, but I remind you that we only average about 6” of snow for the month of December. So that really is not much. This year, we should beat that as we head toward Christmas.
Today/Monday: Sunny, mild, but growing windy and cooler. Daytime highs near 56. Mostly clear as winds die down late. Nighttime lows near 35.
Tuesday: Sunny skies, seasonally cool. Daytime highs near 47. Mostly clear, moon lit skies a night. Nighttime lows near 25.
Wednesday: Sunny. Daytime high 47. Clear to partly cloudy at night. Nighttime lows near 25.
Thursday: Partly sunny, milder. Daytime highs near 54. Nighttime lows near 44.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Sesonal with a few showers around. Daytime highs near 52. Still cloudy, but mild at night. Nighttime lows near 40.
Saturday: Lost of clouds, with good bit of rain around. Cool and raw. Daytime highs near 44. Becoming windy at night, with much colder temperatures. Nighttime lows near 35.
Sunday: Partly to mostly cloudy. Windy and cold. Snow showers possible in the afternoon and over night. Cold with temps steady or dropping. Daytime high: 35. Nighttime low: 24
Hint thru December 1: have to start considering the possibility of snow. It is a big travel week, but lots of cold will be available for snow to make for some messy travel. Do not expect a warm Thanksgiving for this area. I would not be surprised to see the Mountains to our west being white for the 28th. Expect it to remain below normal temperature wise, and normal for precipitation.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.