Happy Monday Morning!
Thank You to all our Veterans!
Busy weekend, so my forecast is coming out this morning. We have a nice November morning, after a windy and gray day on Sunday. The forecast was not too bad last week. I was too warm for the end of the week. The front came through quicker and the cold air established itself faster than expected. The events were correct, but the progression of the pattern is rather quick right now.
One the idea of a big storm developing along the coast this week … well, this will be out to sea. The progression of the pattern is simply too fast. It is easily for one such event, but not unprecedented. Every model had the idea for more than one run and since the ingredients were there, I needed to make mention of the possibility. One option was out to sea, and that is where it will go. The fish will enjoy it.
Grade for the week: B. Some good … some off a little due to timing.
Overview for Coming Week:
A deep strong push of very cold air coming this week starting late Monday night. This air mass would make mid December proud. But with a fast moving pattern, it will come and it will go. Tue and Wed will be cold, but by Thu we will moderate to more seasonal levels as this deep trough lifts out, and a ridge begins to develop.
A new trough will dig into the interior western US, and a new ridge will be strongly established by late this coming weekend. So after a strong shot of cold, we will warm and likely warm up nicely into early next week. As we warm, the western US will have some bitter cold air pouring out of Canada. It will feel like winter and look like it too out there. But here, a nice and dry week will be enjoyed.
The overall pattern is evolving. Canada, especially NW Canada will be turning very cold, and things evolve over the next 2 weeks to locking in to a cold beginning to winter.
Today/Monday: Mostly sunny, seasonal. Increasing clouds late. Daytime highs near 55. Cloudy at night, winds picking up late as cold front moves through. Nighttime lows near 38.
Tuesday: Blustery, cold with clouds and sunshine mixed. It will feel like winter. Snow shower is possible. Daytime highs in the upper 30s (peaking first thing in the morning, and possibly dropping a couple degrees during the day). Partly cloudy at night. Still windy. Nighttime lows near 24.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with some clouds, and flurries. Breezy and cold. Daytime high 38. Clear at night. Winds dying down. Nighttime lows near 20. (upper teens colder valleys).
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny, milder. Daytime highs near 48. Nighttime lows near 24.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. Daytime highs near 53. Nighttime lows near 28.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, seasonal. Daytime highs near 57. Nighttime lows near 39.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Some rain showers are possible. Daytime high: 55. Nighttime low: 45
Hint thru November 24: Mild start with a big ridge establishing itself. Some rain is possible to start Monday but then mild with temps above 60 for early in the week (Mon or Tue), but sharp wet cold front crashing through with more chilly air arriving by Wed and keeping us cool through the weekend. Not a bad week at all. Seasonal overall rain and temp wise.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.