Weather Post Thanksgiving/First Week December - Updated

Thursday update: 

The forecast look to be in good shape. Some rain tonight, and tomorrow. Expect around an inch of rain total. Maybe a few flakes at the very end while we sleep Friday night. No big deal. Saturday will nicer and brighter, but much, much colder. 

Sunday/Monday storm looks to be mostly frozen (snow/sleet) and freezing rain. The set up is not good for bringing in plain rain. It will look like winter by next Monday morning. After that very cold air deepens into the end of the week. Probably peaking Wed-Fri, with Fri morning being in the single digits. This is some mid winter like cold that will be invading our area. So be prepared. More details tomorrow and Saturday. 

Update for end of the week weather: 

Now that I am home and back from visiting family, I have had time to see the changes that need to be made. Most of the change is to move things along faster. Thu the rain arrives late in the day, rain at night, and Friday as well. Colder air will be surging in Fri/Fri night. Some change over to a little snow is possible, but climatology does not favor it for our area. It is hard to get it to rain, be mild in the 50s and then drop and end as an accumulating snow. So I doubt that will happen right now. 

Saturday will be cold, as arctic air pours in, but the boundary will not be far to our south. A new storm will develop out of the SW Gulf/SE Texas region and move northeast for Sunday. Snow will break out, and accumulate. I do no think this will be solely a snowstorm, but it should also go to ice, and a cold rain for a short time Sunday night/Monday.

Specifics: 


Thu: Cloudy with rain arriving late. Mild. High: 57. Low: 48


Fri: Cloudy with rain. Turning colder. Maybe a few snow flakes at night. High: 50. Low: 36


Sat: Clouds early, then some sun. Much colder. High: 36. Low: 25


Sun: Cloudy, snow arriving during the day, changing to sleet/ice late in the evening. Expect some accumulation. Cold. High: 28. Temps rising at night. Low: 34 


Another update likely Thu and Fri as the weather gets challenging. 


 

Good Saturday Morning:

It is cold, and frosty.  A cold Thanksgiving has passed, with snow, ice, rain, fog, and wind.  Not what we are normally expecting for the end of November. We might as well face the truth. Winter is here, and its not going anywhere soon.

Overview for Coming Week:

Next week will not be as cold as this past week, but that won’t mean it will be a heat wave for December. We do have a warm up, albeit a brief one at the end of the week with some rain coming too. This will happen because a massive arctic air mass is dominating western Canada and it will be invade the north Western US. This air mass means business. Below zero high temps are likely in Montana. This is pretty impressive for the very beginning of December, and this air mass will ooze east through Canada and the central US. A storm will run along the boundary into the lakes, producing snow for the central plains. It will push the boundary toward us for the end of the week.

Meanwhile we will warm up. The warm up will begin Thu and last into Saturday. Friday should be the mildest day with temps into the 50s, but some good rain will be possible too. It will be quite mild to our south into MD and even DE (60s). But don’t get too used to as it will continue to push east, and set up to our south for Sunday and into early the following week. We will have to keep a close on this boundary as a storm may form late Sunday/Monday (Dec 8 – 9) and try to move NE bringing a mess of rain, ice and snow.  

Prior to this, we have a little question mark for this coming Tue. A storm will form along the NC/SC coast. It will move N-NE to a point and then out to sea. But how far north does it come?  Hard to say … most forecasts are hardly even mentioning it as the American models (GFS) keep it east of the big cities (Philly, NYC), however the UKMET says more moisture gets thrown back our way and we could get some wet snow with a snow storm further to our NE.  The GEM says nothing for anyone. The ECMWF says somewhere in between. NAM is close but no big deal.  SO which is it?

Specifics:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Not as cold. Low: near 22.

Sunday: Clouds and sunshine, milder. High: 40. Low: 26.

Monday: Cloud with breaks of sun. High: 44. Low: 29

Tuesday: Cloudy, some light rain/wet snow showers possible. High: 43. Low: 32 (a slight shift and this could change to 1-2” of wet snow … don’t think so right now, but a subtle change would make it possible.)

Wednesday: Sun and clouds, milder and more seasonal. High: 47, low: 30

Thursday: Partly sunny and pleasant. Thickening clouds. High: 50 Low: 45.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, rain. Mild. High: 58 Low: 50

Saturday: Clouds and sunshine. Turning much colder. High: 50 Low: 26

Sunday:  Partly sunny. Windy and cold. High: 32 Low: 20

Hint thru Dec 15: A cold week with a storm likely early in the week that could bring rain/ice/snow or any combination of the three. The end of the week could be very cold after the storm moves away.  It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas … maybe not white yet, but it feels cold enough.