The forecast is working out rather well. Got some unexpected showers/thunderstorms last night, but that is ok. Who is up at 3 am anyhow? If it gonna rain, nighttime is a perfect time in my opinion. But a potential problem is arising for today.
There is a conveyor belt of rain/storms from the Southern plains into the Ohio Valley. It is more extensive than first expected. Some showers or even a rumble of thunder is possible yet this morning. But they should weaken and fall apart as they move through our area. After that is the key. Will we clear out? Will we stay cloudy due to so much convective cloud cover to our west? The more sunshine the warmer we get, but the less sun, the cooler we stay. Right now, the satellite picture as seen above at 6 am, is rather pessimistic. It would not surprise me that we stay cloudy until late morning. It will be humid too.
The second concern is as I stated the other day for Sunday’s weather: “The winds behind that front, due to a bubble of high pressure become easterly. This is a BAD direction this time of year: right off the cool ocean. So, at the surface we get socked in with low clouds, a cool east wind, and much cooler temperatures.”
(The weather could be worse … it is snowing in Denver this morning)
Well, the battle rages. The NAM says 55 for 2 pm Sun. The RGEM says 79 for 2 pm Sun. That is one of the largest differences I have ever seen within 48 hours of occurring in these models. 10 degrees is one thing, but 24???? WOW.
My gut says this. Don’t underestimate that ridge. The front will drop, but slowly. The winds will turn out of the east on Sunday, but the flow is weak, meaning any cool ocean air will take it time getting in here. So, I feel that we stay warm, but not as warm as Saturday.
A wet and relatively cool pattern is taking shape as May begins next week. A significant rainstorm looks to be coming Thu/Fri of next week. And it will be cool. No need for A/C just yet.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.