Challenging weather pattern upcoming the next 10 days. There is a lot going on, although the day to day weather may not be all that challenging. It’s not about the details. It’s about the over-all picture. The above shows the dry weather for the next 10 days, meaning not much going on ... yet, we go from a trough to a possible building ridge as the next two pics show. The GFS is probably too fast, but the idea I fell is correct. My thoughts on challenges coming up:
1. Twin West Pacific Typhoons: Poorly handled by modeling. Even now still some questions. The further east one will recurve into the westerlies. But not in the classic sense. It gets trapped, so it stays put as a big ocean storm. Thinking is it will help to keep a trough (cooler air) in the eastern US, delaying a return to hot conditions.
2. Repeat of Thu Coming Mon? On Thursday, based on reports, we got anywhere from 1”- 4” locally. Some very intense rainfall at times. A good needed soaking for many. Will something similar occur next Mon/Mon night? The storm for Monday is similar to Thu, but it is a weaker version. It also will not have the same available moisture. It will be slow moving. And a wave may try to develop on it. I think it will be moist than models indicate at this time.
3. Hot Again? Somewhat on Monday with temps into the mid/upper 80s. Then comfortable through Fri. Next weekend the heat looks to return. Delayed, but not denied.
4. How Cool? Next Wed – Thu will be the coolest with temps around 80 for highs. The coolest temps in relation to average temps will be in the early morning. The days will warm nicely though.
5. Hurricane Danny. He will be in the vicinity of the Caribbean/Bahamas, but in a greatly weakened state. In fact he might not even be a storm by midweek. The moisture from him should not have any impact on us at all.
Saturday: 82. Mostly sunny.
Sunday: 84. Mostly sunny. Comfortably warm.
Monday: 87. Mostly sunny. Hotter. More humid. Chance shower/storm very late/evening.
Tuesday: 83. Mostly sunny. Less humid.
Wednesday: 80. Mostly sunny. Beautiful.
Thursday: 80. Mostly sunny. Beautiful.
Friday: 82. Mostly sunny. Comfortably warm.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.