This week is on average the hottest week of the calendar year. Our average high temperature is 85-86 degrees. And overall the week’s high temps will average into the upper 80s; some days above, some below. A warm week, and once again, nothing extreme.
This week the news media will make a HUGE deal out of the Central US heatwave. It will be hot, that is true. Temps will get into the low triple digits at most. Hot? Yes. Unheard of? No. So the media will play up the HEAT INDEX (combination of temperature and humidity and supposedly how it feels on the body) which will top out between 100-110 degrees. However, if you search the state records you will discover some really amazing REAL temperatures (not heat index). For example: state temperature record for Iowa is 118 set in 1934.
Also, maybe you heard about the heat in northern Alaska? Yes, it reached the mid 80’s. Hot. But did you know that the all-time high temp record was set in Fort Yukon, Alaska at 100 degrees? Yea, but way back in 1915! What was going on back then?
In short, be prepared for lots of talk about extreme heat, although it’s not that extreme. One should drink plenty of water and be careful. But don’t be afraid of it.
For us, we will be on the periphery of the heat. It will get hot Fri – Mon, but nothing out of the ordinary. There will be a chance for a shower or thunderstorm on any of these days. And like last evenings storm the rain could be quite heavy with some gusty winds. Again, fairly typical of warm summer weather.
Side Note: These past few days there has been some talk of an “extreme heat wave” coming to our area this weekend. That was based on a model that is having some major surface temperature problems. Yes, it was saying we would challenge 100 degrees for highs. Some began to check when was the last time we hit 100 degrees for a high and posted it in tweets and discussions. I never fell for it. Others didn’t either. Why? 1) Extreme weather is rare. 2) Models are routinely over stating our heat so far this summer. 3) Same basic pattern in play since June. If nothing has really changed then why would extreme heat suddenly come our way now? (And low and behold, the models are backing away from the heat wave idea.) The number 1 rule in forecasting: Know your observations. Know what is going on and what has happened in the past.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Tuesday: 85. Mostly sunny. Becoming less humid.
Wednesday: 82. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Thursday: 87. Mostly sunny. Very warm.
Friday: 90. Mostly sunny. Chance for showers/thunderstorms.
Saturday: 91. Mostly sunny. Slight chance for showers/thunderstorms late.
Sunday: 91. Mostly sunny. Slight chance for showers/thunderstorms late.
Monday: 90. Mostly sunny. Chance for showers/thunderstorms.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.