Typical Cold with Some Wintry Precipitation

Well, it is cold again, after a nice warm day for Sunday (at least in part that is). This warm up did not feel anything like the warm-ups we had in December. Times have changed. Winter is here. At least in the temperature department. But now what about snow?   That is the BIG Question.
There are two systems to keep an eye on this week:

1. Tuesday: Small, compact, yet intense system coming through. It will be windy with this system, esp. Tue night into Wed. There is not a lot of moisture, but the dynamics are strong. I expect us to get our first coating of snow, and with the possibility of an intense snow squall, someone could get 1-2”. [See image to right that is depicting some light snow and some bands of more intense snow showers/squalls.] But where? Cannot say until the event is unfolding.  So do not be surprised to find some icy roads later Tue into Wed morning in spots.
2. Saturday: Strong storm to develop in Texas, and lift NE into Kentucky. Lots of moisture will flow out of the Gulf of Mexico.  A secondary storm will develop off the Delmarva Peninsula.  The big question is whether this secondary storm will become the primary storm. Two outcomes:
   1. Storm in Kentucky stays strong, secondary weak. We get touch of snow, ice, but mainly a cold soaking rain.
   2. Storm in Kentucky weakens and secondary takes over. We get more snow, ice, less rain.  

My forecast for this coming storm this weekend, is not based on any model. There is support for both possibilities. My forecast, however, is based on what I have been seeing over the last 2 months. Every big storm has gone to our north and west so far, yet they are slowly inching eastward.  It started with a central plains track, then a Mississippi River track to an eastern Ohio valley track this past Sunday. So it would seem the next will hug the western slopes of Appalachian Mountains, or redevelop east of the Mountains. This is why I also feel that by the time February rolls around the primary track will be the coast or off the coast.

I am basing this off of observations. The models are all over the place and will remain so until about Wed.
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:   

1. Cold: Typical winter cold. Highs in the 20s to 32 Mon – Thu.   
2. Snow: Some snow is likely with Tue afternoon/night system. Snow showers with possible snow squall giving us coating to 1” for most. Locally higher in any squall.       
3. Wintery Weather:  I will be surprised if we do not receive any snow or ice this coming weekend. Arctic air does not move out quickly. Models are likely removing the cold too fast.

 
Monday: 30. Mostly sunny. Cold. Breezy.      

​Tuesday: 32. Mostly cloudy. Few peeks of sun. Some very light snow and a squall possible after 2 pm. Up to 1” for most.   

Wednesday: 28. Clouds and sun. Flurries. Windy. Cold.     

Thursday: 30. Mix of sun and clouds. Flurries possible. Cold.

Friday:  35. Mostly sunny. Increasing clouds in afternoon. Milder.    

Saturday: 37. Cloudy. Snow/ice/rain developing by afternoon.     

Sunday: 35. Cloudy. Rain/snow ending early. Winds increasing late.    

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