Trouble in Model Land
It is sad, that our nation has spent millions of dollars on computer models to predict the weather and the super short-term sophisticated model cannot get a 1 hour forecast correct. Yes, I stated that correct. This morning’s showers and storms are non-existent in the one hour forecast for the HRRR model. How can that be? I mean, it has to have the initial on-weather correct when it starts at 0 hour right? So, how can it lose and increasing area of showers/storms in one hour? I have not idea. I have never trusted the HRRR model since its beginning.
The bulk of the rain is over for this morning. A few could still occur, but most are done for now. Some new showers and possibly a thunderstorm are possible this afternoon, but it will not be raining all the time. In fact, some of us will stay dry into tonight.
Sunday looks “ok”. That is, not a huge amount of rain. Just humid. Lots of clouds. Some sun. A few showers around.
Monday looks “lousy”, unless you love the possibility of heavy rain. It looks cloudy and wet. Possibly very wet. More details as we get closer. But the upper level closed off low position is favorable for N-S bands of rain to move over the area.
Tuesday looks “ok” with showers still likely but hit and miss. It will still be humid.
Wednesday and Thursday look warm and dry for the most part. Humid again. I guess we might as well drop the humid from the forecast as it will remain humid this next week. Get used to it.
Longer Range: August should remain wet. I would not be surprised to see some folks approach 10” rain for the month. Considering that I’ve measured over 5” to date, and with the potential to get another 2” by Wednesday, 10” by months end is not stretching it that much.
There is, however, some talk of a dry September. I would be hesitant with that. Yes, drier than we’ve been. That is easy. This excessively wet pattern will end. But to say September will be dry is a stretch. I don’t see that. Now October … yes. I could see a dry and warm Oct, but a dry and warm September? No. I don’t see it. Warm and moist? Yes.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.