Time for Some Bowling?

What does Bowling have to do with weather? Well, not much. It's just a good visual. If you looked at a map of the upper level atmosphere, you would see over this coming week, troughs that look like bowling balls moving west to east across the eastern US. This is all part of a seasonal change in the weather pattern.

A transition appears underway: transient troughs and ridges, cooling south, warmest temp anomalies in the north and even more so into Canada. Signs of the winter pattern emerging?  Or will it stay this way?  Time will tell. Winter snows have been hitting the west of late and that looks to continue for the next two weeks as we stay relatively mild. No heat waves, just overall mild.

Review for November:

• It was warm. Got that forecast right. It was nearly 5 degrees above average. A top 5 warmest ever recorded.
• It was NOT wet. Got that part of forecast wrong. Thought the storminess would have been greater than it was. If November had 31 days we could have added 1” of rain, and that would have put us near average. So it was drier. Similar in ways to 2009. 

December Outlook:

• Mild. Not like November. Perhaps 2 degrees above average, weighted warm the first half of month and cooler second half.
• Wet. Storminess should increase and so should moisture. Seeing signs of it. Off to a good start. Possible big storm next week as well.
• Snow?  Please be reminded through Dec. the average snow for the valleys around here is about 6” (add a few for the ridges). Not a lot. Just keep that in mind. One storm is all it takes.

 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Seasonal: No heat waves. No cold waves. Seasonal with at least partial sunshine Fri – Mon.   
2. Clouds: Some scattered around as moisture is being trapped under building but weak ridge.  
3. Rain: Not much. About three chances for showers, but none look very impressive at this time. Larger storm system to impact us early next week (14th – 15th).
4. Bowling Balls: Picture a bowling ball rolling down the alley. That is what we will be having in the eastern US for the next week. Cut off areas of low pressure bowling east. None are terribly strong. The first comes Tue (coastal storm probably too far south and east of us); second Thu (a shower might happen), the next around Sat. Timing is a little tricky.
5. Mild Sunday: Yes, next Sunday and Monday looks to be mild. 60 for Dec 13 and 14 anyone? Low level chilly air could mess up the 60, but the pattern could support 60.     
6. Pattern Change Coming? There are signs of a pattern shift coming, and we are already experiencing the beginnings of it. This is a mild pattern for Canada and far northern US. But the further south you go, the less “mild it is.” Winter pattern should produce a chilly southern US, and mild northern US, esp. out west. So parts of this are developing. Also, the ridges and toughs are transient, and less “established for days on end like Thanksgiving week. Subtle, yet definite changes are occurring.   
7. First 1” of Snow: I believe we will have to wait until after Dec 20.  

 
Friday: 45. Partly cloudy. Seasonal.             
Saturday: 48. Partly cloudy.   
Sunday: 50. Mostly sunny.    
Monday: 52. Mostly sunny.   
Tuesday: 47. Partly to mostly cloudy. Shower possible. Cooler.   
Wednesday: 48. Partly cloudy.     
Thursday: 50. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday: 50. Mix of sun and clouds.
Saturday: 53. Mix of sun and clouds.
Sunday: 58. Partly sunny. Mild SW flow.                

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