Today: (Wednesday) ... The heavy rainstorm that was potentially coming ... is still coming. There are some minor changes. One is that the risk for thunder is relatively low, so excessive rain causing flash flooding is not going to happen.
But the rain is still coming. These small scale systems are terrible for models to forecast. For example: the JMA shows us getting nothing ... the UKMET says very little ... the NAM shows heavy rain north of us ... the GFS shows moderate rain ... and some real short term models range from some heavy to some very light. Confusing? yes, it can be. But this is no longer a model forecast. It is now based on observation ...
Forecast: Rain arriving after 10 pm ... light to moderate rain most of the night into the morning. Some heavier rain possible esp. after 3 am. Rain ending by 9 am. Some clearing occurring in the afternoon. Cool with temps. in the low 60's for most of the day, but jumping up to the low 70's with any clearing. Total rain about 1 - 1.5". A nice soaking.
Today (Tuesday) will feature some showers and possible storms. However, severe weather will be pretty much non existent as the front/line of precipitation will come through too early in the day. No one should be complaining at all about that.
Too early in the day, means less surface heating by the sun, and less energy for the potential storms to feed off of. Like eating a granola bar, instead of a 3 course meal. A granola bar is good but won't last that long. So our showers/storms around midday will not be all that bad. It will be much more humid as you can already tell.
Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning: This potent system I alluded to this past weekend, is looking like it will take aim right at us. This could/should bring some heavy rain, and thunder. The exact path will be crucial to us getting up to 1" or over 2". It will be much cooler also with highs on Thursday staying in the mid 60s most of the day, until it clears out in the afternoon.
So be prepared for some midday rain showers/storms today. Nothing to worry about. Dry Wed, but some heavy rain coming for Wed night (after midnight) into early Thur morning.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.