The Troublesome Tropics

The arrival of much cooler air is still on track for later today through the weekend.  It will be very refreshing with low humidity, a nice breeze at times, and cooler nights into Sat.   
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The big question mark is Tropical Storm Hermine. Often a tropical storm/hurricane is tracked pretty easily from about 3 days out. It movements guided by the upper level ridges, troughs or the prevailing winds. However, this situation coming up for this weekend is a little different.

Now the map to the left shows what is predicted as of 11 am Thursday for the path of Hermine, however, the path can change and often does some. A shift of 50 miles north or south of the central path will make a large difference for our area. Further north means heavy rain is possible. Further south: dry and breezy. 

This situation is not your typical one though; thus the higher than normal uncertainty: 

• Trough coming in, but most is leaving to the NE as the ridge looks to rebound quickly.
• A piece of the trough stays behind and drops S. This tries to capture Hermine creating an upper level low over the Mid-Atlantic States.
• Ridging over the top of a trough is a slow moving pattern. Hermine will likely stall off/along the east coast producing lots of coastal flooding and beach erosion as well as dangerous rip tides. 

Think of it this way. Try fishing without a just a net. It is a challenge. But if done right you catch your fish. Same with Hermine. If caught just right, it is pulled north and we get rain. 
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This storm will come very close to our area. My gut call is that it will stay far enough away to prevent heavy rain or strong winds. There is likely to be some light rain/drizzle at times. We will have lots of clouds and a NE breeze.  

I will know with much more certainty by lunch time Friday.

Other than that it looks dry for the next week to 10 days. And it will warm up again next week. I would not be surprised to see us run for 90 again for a couple to few days a week from now.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Gorgeous Fall Preview: Much cooler Thu night into Sat. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Refreshing and dry.
2. Sat/Sun Question: If Tropical Storm Hermine is captured we will have some rain and breezy conditions Saturday night and Sunday.  Expect at least lots of clouds and a NE breeze.  
3. Labor Day Warm up: No matter what the tropical system does we will be warming a bit starting Mon and lasting though the upcoming week.   

 
Details:

Thursday: 79. Clearing skies. Partly to mostly sunny. Refreshing breeze.   

Friday: 74. Partly to mostly sunny. Refreshing.         

Saturday: 78. Increasing clouds. NE breeze develops. Chance of light rain overnight.    

Sunday: 74. Cloudy. Chance of rain. Gusty NE breeze at times.      

Labor Day: 80. Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer.

Tuesday: 86. Partly to mostly sunny. Very warm. Humid.            

Wednesday: 89. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.  

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