The Dreaded 'BUT'

Discussion:

Warmer weather is on its way. More humid too. BUT … gotta hate those BUTS, BUT there are two in this 7-day forecast.

The first is today. It will be warmer, but will the low clouds break up. They should, but there is a lot around. The flow is backing out of the south, which should help push the clouds away since there is some sign of partial clearing in portions of Maryland. Our temperatures are tied to the amount of sunshine. If they don’t temperatures struggle to hit 70. If they do break up, then we may get near 80. Fun, fun, fun for spring!
Second BUT concerns this weekend. I mentioned the other day about a front that would try to come down from the north on Saturday to cool us off, and how I doubted it would impact up much. Well, the front really won’t, but the winds behind that front will.

What I mean is this: The temperatures at the 850 mb level (5000’ up in atmposphere) change little if at after front passes just to our south. The 500 mb ridge changes little either. However, the winds behind that front, due to a bubble of high pressure become easterly. This is a BAD direction this time of year: right off the cool ocean. So, at the surface we get socked in with low clouds, a cool east wind, and much cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, not too far to our SW, its sunny and in the 80s as the 850 mb and 500 mb advertise it to be!  

The glories of spring in eastern PA. Gotta love it! 

And it to make our bodies ride the roller coaster of weather, that front will either move north or dissipate Sun night, giving us a very warm Monday. With enough sunshine, our temperatures could soar into the middle 80’s. Right now, I don’t think there will be enough, however 80 is very reachable.

Behind the cold front Monday night, and it associated showers and thunderstorms, the air will be much cooler and any attempted warm up will be thwarted with clouds and rain. Next Thu – Fri looks wet as a new storm moves out of the southern plains/gulf coast states.

A wet and relatively cool pattern is taking shape as May begins next week. How long will it last? 

The Dailies:

• Thursday: increasing sunshine. Warm upper 70s.  
• Friday: Sunshine. Warm. Upper 70’s.
• Saturday: Sunshine. Very warm. More humid. 80’s with slight chance for shower or storm overnight.  
• Sunday: Much cooler. Cloudy. 60’s
• Monday: At least partly sunny. Breezy. Warmer. Showers/storms evening/overnight. Some heavy. Near 80.
• Tuesday: Sun and clouds. Slight chance for a shower. Much cooler. Low 60’s
• Wednesday: Sunshine with increasing clouds. Pleasant. Mid 60’s.

 
Enjoy.