Been reading about this lately. Many armchair forecasters are touting the death of winter: El Nino is the cause. Global warming is the cause. No matter what one wants to blame it, you cannot change the fact that is has been very warm and spring-like. Some records were set, and in some places with lots of sunshine shattered their record highs for last Sunday.
So where is winter? This is my current thinking:
- Forecasts ought to be based on observations, not just modeling.
- Models are like yo-yos right now. One day they show cold and snow. The next warm and dry. Then stormy and warm. Then cold and dry. Every day it is changing. The models are struggling how to handle this pattern. Anything beyond 5 days is suspect and beyond 7 days is a virtual pipe dream right now. Just ignore it. Or look at for fun and games, but don’t take it seriously.
- Example of #2: A week ago there was talk of snow miracle for Christmas in the east. Just a couple days ago there was talk of 70 degrees for us for Christmas. Who knows what it will be next? I do not buy either scenario either. Probably 50s and maybe some rain.
- Right now the pattern is showing some signs of change. Indications (not details, just generalizations) of more storminess, more days of wind, more rain; all are indicators of a fight going on between warm and cold. This fall into early December has been relatively calm, and warm. It has been beautiful. Lots of sunny days too. With a periodic big storm every few weeks. No sustained storminess. No sustained fight. Warmth wins. But now that appears to be changing. The pacific (satellites pics show this) is very stormy and that is heading our way. Our first storm was Monday and the next is Thu, with two Christmas week.
- Christmas week will likely be mild to warm over-all. It will also likely be wet too.
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:
- Bitter Cold: Well not really. But it will feel that way. Fri – Monday. It will be below average Sat and Sun with highs struggling to break freezing Sat and then upper 30s Sun. Long term average is 40. So chilly, but not bitter cold.
- Rain: Rain Thu with sharp cold front.
- Tale of Two Waves: One wave of low pressure enhances the rain on Thu, could be heavy at times, esp. east, then another tries to develop along coast for Fri. Could that spread more rain into our area? Probably not.
- First 1” of Snow: Unless a heavy snow shower moves through and dumps 1” on us on the late Fri – Sat night there will be nothing through Christmas.
Tuesday: 54. Partly cloudy. Breezy.
Wednesday: 55. Sunshine with increasing clouds esp. late.
Thursday: 50. Mostly cloudy. Mild but colder late with showers.
Friday: 40. Much colder. Sun and clouds. Gusty winds late.
Saturday: 33. Cold. Sun and clouds. Snow shower possible. Gusty winds.
Sunday: 38. Cold. Mostly sunny.
Monday: 41. Cloudy. Seasonal.