Thanksgiving Week Weather - updated

Tuesday Morning: 


I did not do an update, because I feel the forecast looks pretty good. The models shuffled this way and that, so I stuck with what I have. But there a few adjustments. 

1. Snow this morning, although pretty and may come down hard for a short time, will not last. I would love for it too, but it will not. It will turn to a nasty cold rain by this afternoon (2 pm). Heavy rain will invade the area later today and tonight. It will be nasty as temps stay in the 30s but rise to near 43 by morning. 
2. Wed will be a transition day. Expect temps to be in the lower 40s with rain in the morning. Forget the sunshine thing. It will be cloudy, and growing colder as temps fall in the afternoon. Another burst of rain, possibly changing to a burst of snow in the later afternoon could make for some interesting travel.  If you are heading toward State College, Williamsport, or in any western direction, one could run across some very heavy snow and strong winds as the "backlash" comes through. (I feel we will be on the eastern edge and will be too warm to get a quick couple of inches. But stay tuned, these things can surprise)
3. The winds will become very strong on Wed - Thu. It will be very cold too. Over areas that get 4" or more of snow, expect temps to be in the single digits Fri night/Sat morning as it is clear and calm.  In other words, record cold temps could occur. 
4. Enjoy Thanksgiving. Stay inside, enjoy your turkey and stuffing. It should be a nice weekend, but cold with highs mainly in the 30s to near 40 by Sunday. More cold rain/wet snow possible on Monday.   

Happy Saturday Morning!  

I couldn’t have been more wrong about the sky conditions from Monday’s forecast for today: clouds and rain versus sunshine. Oops! But the temps will be good around 44!  And it will be getting very cold tonight through most of next week! It will feel like winter for much of next week.  

Overview for Coming Week:

The big topic will be the weather for next week. It will be cold, and with the big storm coming for Tue – Wed. The major system out of the SW (producing lots of rain out there), will kick east, causing snow/ice/rain through Texas, and then lots of rain through the SE. This storm will then move northeast along the East Coast.

At the same time strong energy will be dropping SE out of central Canada. The interaction between this energy and the system coming out of the SW will be key.

Things forecasters need to consider: Often times, models drag energy coming out of the SW US, so I would move it along a little faster.  The pattern is progressive meaning phasing of the two is less likely, and there is no high pressure to lock in the cold meaning we will warm up, but the progressive nature of pattern limits that. Also, since the models are all over the place, one has to look at what has happened in the past.  

If this system phases fully … both energies work together 100% … forget the snow, and enjoy a nasty cold, heavy rain storm. I do not think they will fully phase until after the storm is past us. I do think that it will impact us, but most of it will be rain, with a little snow.

For our area, I expect some snow to break out Tue afternoon. It will likely change to rain, and stay mainly rain through the night. It could end as a period of wet snow, but I am leaning against it. In total I would expect 2” or less for this area. But stay tuned it may change.  

Also Wed, any possible snow will end very early. It will be cool, become windy and turn colder. Some sun will break out. Thursday will be very cold, and windy. Snow flurries and snow showers could be around as well. It will stay cold through the weekend.

Specifics:

Tonight: Partly cloudy, windy. Much colder; low: near 22.

Sunday: Cold and blustery. Flurries and a snow shower is possible under partly sunny skies. High: 28. Low: 20.

Monday: Sunny but chilly. Winds lessening. High: 35. Low: 20

Tuesday: increasing and thickening clouds. Wet snow should arrive in the afternoon, with a small accumulation possible on colder surfaces. It will be cold and raw. High: 35. Any snow will likely change to a cold nasty rain by late evening.  Low: temps slowly rising to near 40.  

Wednesday: Rain ending possibly as some light snow very early, before sunrise. The sun will shine in and out by midday. It will become windy by the afternoon. Daytime high:  45. Partly cloudy at night, low: 27.  

Thanksgiving Day: Partly sunny, very windy and cold.  High: 30 Low: 20.

Friday: Partly sunny, very windy and cold.  High: 30 Low: 20

Saturday: Partly sunny.  High: 38 Low: 18

Sunday:  Partly sunny. High: 40 Low: 20

Hint thru Dec 8: Not nearly as cold nor as potentially snowy, but certainly not warm. I do not see any major storms at this point, until late in the week. But that should be all rain, so nothing to worry about here. Expect most days to be in the 40s for highs, and low in the 20s or again below average over all.