Tenaciously Troubling Tropics

Quick Early Bird Update

Hermine stalled further east than expected. This is good news for us and the coastal areas. As the storm rotates west it will stay further off shore. So that means more sun for us, and rain chances diminished to very, very low on Mon and removed from rest of forecast.

Today: 78. Sun and clouds. Breeze at times.

Monday: 80. Partly sunny. Breezy. Possible sprinkle.

Tuesday: 82. Partly sunny. Breezy at times.
 
The rest of the forecast looks good. 

And that is what it is. Hermine is not the strongest nor the most dangerous hurricane ever. Not even close. However, she is going to a thorn in our side through Labor Day and perhaps beyond.

I talked of the capture and the importance of when that would occur. Well it is occurring now, and it is happening off shore. 

This is good. What it means is that the storm will stay off shore even as it loops around for the next two days.

This is also bad. It means the storm will be able to batter the coastal areas for several days on end. This will lead to some very serious coastal flooding, esp. from central NJ south through the Delmarva Peninsula. The map I posted is a what is forecast for Mon at 8 pm. Storm is going now where. This is a big problem for the coast. 

For example, a state of emergency has been declared for Atlantic, Cape May and Ocean counties of NJ. Yea, these are big beach vacation hot spots. This is serious.

But for those of us well away from the coast?  Just a thorn in our side.

I am sticking with my gut call from the other day: “My gut call is that it will stay far enough away to prevent heavy rain or strong winds. There is likely to be some light rain/drizzle at times. We will have lots of clouds and a NE breeze.”  I am not looking for a lot of rain, just enough to make it wet at times.  

The big change is for Mon – Wed. As this system is captured by the upper level low, it looks to get sandwiched between two strong ridges: one to the SW and the other to the east.  This prevents the low from moving much until later in the week.  

So it will be cloudier than originally thought, but it will stay cooler. The heat will surge in for late week, however until a cold front passes through late Sat. 
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Hermine Problem: Lots of clouds Sun, Mon, Tue and maybe into Wed. There are likely to be breaks in the clouds at times, but don’t’ expect a lot of sunshine.  Also, a gusty E-NE breeze will be present at times.  
2. Rain Showers: Some showers may move into our area moving east to west. Best chance is Sun night through Tue night. 
3. Temperature Jump: Much nicer and much warmer Thu – Sat. Highs near 90 Fri and Sat.
4. Cold Front: Front moves through late Sat into Sun bringing chance for some showers and cooler temps for 9/11.

 
Details:

Sunday: 76. Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Gusty E-NE breeze at times.      

Labor Day: 76. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Gusty E-NE breeze.  

Tuesday: 76. Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Weakening E-NE breeze.             

Wednesday: 83. Partly sunny. Warmer. Chance of showers.   

Thursday: 87. Mostly sunny. Much warmer. Humid.    

Friday: 90. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.          

Saturday: 90. Increasing clouds. Hot. Humid.    

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