Glad I did not change my over-all thinking on this storm. Originally I said to expect several inches (4” would be several by the way). That is a little high, but not unreasonable as there is question as to how much precipitation will fall when it changes to snow. The last 3 cycles of model runs have shown anywhere from 4"+ to less than a 1". It would take very little change to give us several inches, but at this point that is a worst case scenario. Going from rain to ice to an accumulating snow is a challenge in this area, rare indeed. So climo says not much snow.
The problem is that instead of rain going over to just snow, it will likely go to a period of freezing rain (freezing on colder surfaces like trees, cars, shadowed walks, roads behind hills/buildings/thick trees, etc.), for a time, so be careful as the afternoon/evening drive could become treacherous, before it all changed to wet snow into Mon night ending by midnight.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Mild by comparison. High near 40. Light rain arrives late at night low 36 by morning.
Monday: Rain in the morning becoming freezing rain then snow by late afternoon. Small accumulation of ice, before becoming all snow. High: 35 but temps slowly falling.
Monday Night: Snow ending by midnight. Total snow around 2” (tough call as any slight shift could mean no snow to a lot more snow.) with more to the north and less to the south.
Tue-Wed will be nice February days with highs around 30 and low near 15 Tue night, but with increasing clouds and chance for light snow late Wed night, low will be near 25.
On Thu a major arctic attack will begin. Strong upper level storm will move across the area and strengthen as it does so and even more along and off the coast of NJ. Expect at least a light accumulation of snow for us. We will have to watch this one though as it has greater potential.
Thursday: Light snow likely with at least a light accumulation. Becoming very cold esp with temps dropping. High 25 and low 0. Windy with low windchill
Friday: Bitter cold. Sun and clouds. High 10, low 0.
Saturday: increasing clouds. Milder with snow arriving. At least a light accumulation High 24, low 20. Will need to keep an eye on this system as well as it too has potential to dump more based on track.
Sunday: Windy and much colder again. Sun and clouds. High 24, low 0.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.