Sunday Evening

Winter Outlook: No matter how much we criticize the weather forecaster for being wrong … we still wonder what winter will be like. So I thought I would toss in my opinions as well … so here goes:

1)      No one REALLY knows except God. Since we are not Him, we will not really know until … Spring J

2)      Weather does offer hints as to what it might do. So the rest are hints I have seen this fall …

3)      Big cold highs being stronger to our north, meaning cold air will get locked in more easily. (like this past weekend!) This is different than last year.

4)      Two storm tracks: Through Great Lakes and along East Coast.  

I think winter will be fairly normal temperature wise, and potentially rather snowy especially is we can get anything to pop along the Coast.  We only average about 36” snow for the season, which really is not much. One big storm or two and we are practically there already (recall Feb 2010 with 33” in 5 days).

The Great Lakes storm track is interesting. With cold being locked in against the mountains (like this past weekend) would lead to an overrunning situation where warm air is lifted up over cold air at the surface. This leads to a snow to ice to rain situation. I expect to see this pattern a fair amount as the coldest air stays to our west.  

This will not be a repeat of last year’s non winter. It was nice for the heating bill, but it will feel and look more like winter this year.

Summary:

1)      Near normal winter temps overall  

2)      Precipitation above normal

3)      Snow a little above normal (say 40”)

Have a great night.

Regular Discussion:  

Mon – Tue: As feared the cold air stayed locked in longer and gave us a colder Sunday. The clouds should break for Monday as a weak front will be moving through. This will lead to a nice warm surge for Mon and Tue with temps into the lower 60s on Tuesday. Enjoy it!   

Wed-Fri: Changeable and unsettled. A front comes through late Tue night bringing some rain and much colder temps for Wed. Temperatures will hold steady or even fall some Wed afternoon. Thursday much colder but with sunshine … more clouds Friday as another frontal boundary tries to come on in with even more colder air.

Extended: It may be wet and cold on Saturday and just cold and dry on Sunday. Interesting system likely to come early next week … could be a big rain maker and snow maker for folks in the Ohio valley but those details can be worked out later!

Here is my forecast:  

Tonight: mostly cloudy … damp … couple light showers … temperatures holding in the mid 40s   

Monday: clouds decreasing … very mild high near 60

Monday night: partly cloudy … mild … lows near 45  

Tuesday: sun and clouds … increasing SW wind … high near 65

Tuesday night: clouds thicken … some rain esp. after midnight … mild … low near 50

Wednesday: cloudy with a few showers to start … late clearing … temps near 50 then falling into the lower 40s

Thursday: Sun and clouds … chilly … high upper 30s

Friday: increasing clouds … highs in the mid 40s

Until Tomorrow …