Sun and Rain; Warm and Cool; We Got It All

Discussion:

The headline is right. This coming week will feature some soaking wetness, some cool temperatures, then some sun and very warm temperatures. Yes, we may have temperatures soaring into the 80s while Denver digs out from by next weekend. Isn’t spring fun?

During my last update early in the week, I mentioned that it would be wise to not underestimate that ridge off the east coast. I felt it would not allow the weekend system to be suppressed. Well, it did, but not exactly that way I thought.

The upper trough in the central states, is essentially “splitting.” A smaller piece of energy is moving through today (not Sunday) producing showers. But a bigger piece is being left behind to form a cut-off low. With a smaller piece moving through, things moved faster, thus the showers today and not tomorrow. Also, with a bigger piece left behind, there is trouble brewing for early next week.

This cut off low will meaner slowly eastward/southeastward to the Carolina coastline, where it will develop a low pressure area that will entrain energy from the Caribbean. This will bring some gusty coastal winds and lots of rain to the Mid-Atlantic south of Maryland/Delaware. The big ridge will prevent this storm from drifting east off the coast. Then as another trough builds in the west, the closed upper low on the east coast will begin moving northward giving us a soaking rain on Tue. The question remains how much?  At this time I would expect at least .50” with potential for 1.5”+, depending on track of this storm. 

After this storm the upper ridge moves in for Thu – Sun. A weak front will try to move through on Thu but it won’t do much. Behind that the heat builds. 80s are expected Fri, possibly Sat and Sun depending on how far south a boundary from Canada moves.  A strong storm, that will bring a snowstorm to Denver, will be moving in on Sun/Mon period with some heavy rain and/or severe thunderstorms. 

To summarize:

• Upper ridge helped a “split” of upper trough, giving us showers Sat.
• Bigger piece left behind, is blocked by upper ridge from moving out to sea off east coast.
• Upper low moves north up along coast bringing soaking rain Mon night – Wed morning.
• Upper ridge builds in for Thu – Sun. Temperatures look to soar into the 80s for Fri and Sat.  
• Northern front (like a “back door” cold front) will try to cut off heat late Sat into Sun, but that is not certain.
• Strong cold front for Sun/Mon with heavy rain/severe storms.

 
The Dailies:

• Sunday: Clouds and sun. Seasonally cool.
• Monday: Clouds thickening during day. Rain arrives after dark.
• Tuesday: Cool with rain. Heavy at times? Breezy east winds.
• Wednesday: Clearing. Not as cool. Breezy at times.
• Thursday: Sunshine and clouds. Chance for a shower. Warm 70s to near 80.
• Friday: Sunshine. Very warm. Low/Mid 80s.
• Saturday: Sunshine and clouds. Very warm. More humid. Low 80s.
• Sunday: Sunshine and clouds. Cooler.