Day 10 forecasts for GFS, GGEM and EURO. Nice to see agreement (Sarc). Sometimes computers help and sometimes they add to the confusion. My gut has been for warmer since the beginning of the month, so I stick with it.
Low Humidity, Some Rain, Plus Confusion:
Beautiful mostly sunny weather will dominate through Wednesday. I hope you get a chance to enjoy it. This is occurring because of the big Canadian Maritime Protector … or known as an upper level low in a blocking pattern. But this storm will slowly pull away and leave the door open for a system to come in from the west and bring us our best chance for rain this week on Thursday.
The pattern shows a ridge in the central states, and a trough in the northern corners in the Pacific NW and NE states. This will stay for the week. This new system coming in on Thursday will help to reinforce our trough and not bring in the heat from the central US.
Our temps this week will be very comfortable, with the warmest day likely to be Wednesday, and possibly Sunday or next Monday. The uncertainty here is due to the models being so confused. The big 3 show warm weather (GFS), a heat wave (GGEM) and comfy (EURO). So take your pick! (See Pictures above).
Actually, I see similarities from the Mid May pattern and the heat that ended the month. I think the same idea will occur here. The Thursday system is likely to split with one piece heading out to sea, the other stays along the coast and strengthens into a slow moving system that probably stays off shore, but close enough to keep us comfortable through next weekend. As this happens a ridge is likely to build in SE Canada, which could lead to a much warmer to hotter pattern coming after June 22. Again, similar to May.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Today: 74: Mostly sunny. Breezy at times. More clouds at night, maybe a shower.
Tuesday: 78. Mostly sunny. Very nice. Warmer.
Wednesday: 83. Mostly sunny. Pleasantly warm.
Thursday: 74. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday: 78. Sun and clouds. Pleasantly warm.
Saturday: 81. Mostly sunny. Breeze at times.
Sunday: 81. Mostly sunny. Breeze at times.
Monday: 81: Mostly sunny. Breeze at times.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.