Hot and humid conditions will prevail through Thursday, followed by a brief “cool down” to average temperatures. This month will end warm and September will likely be quite warm as well. This of course means potential for tropical moisture (from Tropical storm of some kind of just moisture from the deep south) would be able to come north into our area. Otherwise, a pattern that will be on the drier side of average.
Questions for Forecast:
1. How hot will it get? We should approach or even surpass 90 for today, Tue, and Wed. Upper 80s for Thu. I am going well above model guidance for Wed and Thu due to their notorious for cutting temps too much in advance of cod fronts. The models produce too many clouds too quickly, cutting temps, and also cut temps too much as 850 mb temps decrease. But to compensate the starting point of surface temps is much higher leading to warmer highs. I have used this basic rule for our area for several years and it works very well. So I kept the temps higher.
2. When will it rain? Slight chance of rain Tue and Wed. But Thu will feature a strong chance for a soaking rain, esp. afternoon into the overnight. Slow moving front will allow for lots of moisture to surge north and give a good rain for many. We could use it by then.
3. Super Typhoons in the West Pacific impact? Does not look like they will recurve in the classic sense. So their impact is to keep things going the way they have been going. A brief cool down this weekend, but then the ridge should rebound and take control again once into next week. But first we have this week to go through …
(Sorry for leaving an old forecast for Monday on Sat’s update. Temp was right. Sky conditions was from last week. My bad. It is correct now.)
Monday: 92. Sunny. Hot. Humid.
Tuesday: 93. Mostly sunny. Hot, humid. Slight chance shower/storm
Wednesday: 90. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot, humid. Chance showers/storms
Thursday: 87. At least partly sunny. Humid. Showers/storms becoming likely in the afternoon/overnight.
Friday: 82. Clearing skies. Less humid.
Saturday: 85. Mostly sunny. Warm.
Sunday: 86. Mostly sunny. Warm. More humid. Slight chance shower/storm.