These are some things to consider for this summer’s weather:
- Very wet weather developing in the central plains. They were very hot and very dry last summer. Since weather flows west to east, this means the air from the west should have more moisture with it and be cooler.
- Increasingly moist central Gulf coast states and Southeast is a big deal as it helps keep temps from being so extreme and dry. The only fly in the ointment here is that NC, parts of Virginia up into NE have been somewhat drier than normal which could expand west as dry ground support ridging and warmer temps, as well as squashing/limiting rain as we head into summer. So a mixed signal here.
- Very warm Atlantic Ocean water off the NE coast. The water is warmer than average, by a fair amount. This warmth helps support ridging in the upper atmosphere, thus leading to warmer more humid conditions as we are on the western side which gives us a more southerly wind flow of warm more moist air.
- Smaller heat source this year in the dry regions of the SW, but big enough to provide surges of heat for 3-5 days at a time.
- Favorable pattern and water profile for active tropical year around Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Western Atlantic Ocean along East Coast.
Conclusion: With the central US being cooler and wetter, I expect a trough to stay more focused over that area. This means we will be on the eastern side of any trough/cooler air masses which means we will be warmer than those to our west.
Also, with the heat source to our SW, expect some surges of heat, but being short lived. However, with a wetter USA this year, and much less drought, the extremely hot and dry air masses of last year will be more limited this year. This in of itself will likely lead to more rain than last year. (But if the wet weather shifts any more to the west, we may dry out as we get deeper into the summer) Also, moist inflow from the Gulf of Mexico will help keep us moist, esp. if and when tropical moisture gets involved.
- June: average temps … above average rainfall with a wetter beginning and drier ending.
- July: above average temps … slightly below average rainfall, but this does not include tropical moisture from any tropical storms/hurricanes.
- August: above average temps … well above average rainfall because of expected tropical moisture from a storm or two.