Lots of hoopla about the Big Storm. Here are some rational thoughts on it:
· It will be a big storm. It will deepen rapidly esp. from VA Capes on north into Atlantic Canada
· Warm air. THE BIG ISSUE this winter: cold air runs away when moisture comes its way. Some years, it works perfect (ex: 2009/2010 winter) other years not so much. South of Interstate 80 and east of Interstate 81 will switch over to rain for a time.
· It appears right now that we are right on that boundary. Yipee! Makes for a fun forecast.
· Snow to start … but does it stay as snow?
· Quite frankly, the computer model forecasts have been horrible. They go from major snow to warm with lots of rain, and then back to snow … New England blizzard to a miss to a hit. Horrible. So in many ways throw them out and look at history:
o No fresh arctic air means wetter snow, and shorter duration storm, with rain being a real threat that will disappoint many a snow lover in the big cities.
o Heavy moisture in deep Texas and Western Gulf say “Watch Out! Storm may be coming NE. Will probably be more extensive with precipitation than models have it.
Based on all this here is my forecast:
· Snow arriving around 1-2 am Sat morning. Could be briefly heavy at times before becoming lighter and more intermittent. Could change to light rain for a time mid-morning, before ending as a period of snow in the early afternoon.
· Total snow: 2-4” really wet snow (low confidence, but first guess at this time).
In some ways it is funny how all the attention on this Sat’s storm … but the biggest impact storm will be Sun night into Monday. Watch out for that one.
· It will be a big storm. It will deepen rapidly esp. from VA Capes on north into Atlantic Canada
· Warm air. THE BIG ISSUE this winter: cold air runs away when moisture comes its way. Some years, it works perfect (ex: 2009/2010 winter) other years not so much. South of Interstate 80 and east of Interstate 81 will switch over to rain for a time.
· It appears right now that we are right on that boundary. Yipee! Makes for a fun forecast.
· Snow to start … but does it stay as snow?
· Quite frankly, the computer model forecasts have been horrible. They go from major snow to warm with lots of rain, and then back to snow … New England blizzard to a miss to a hit. Horrible. So in many ways throw them out and look at history:
o No fresh arctic air means wetter snow, and shorter duration storm, with rain being a real threat that will disappoint many a snow lover in the big cities.
o Heavy moisture in deep Texas and Western Gulf say “Watch Out! Storm may be coming NE. Will probably be more extensive with precipitation than models have it.
Based on all this here is my forecast:
· Snow arriving around 1-2 am Sat morning. Could be briefly heavy at times before becoming lighter and more intermittent. Could change to light rain for a time mid-morning, before ending as a period of snow in the early afternoon.
· Total snow: 2-4” really wet snow (low confidence, but first guess at this time).
In some ways it is funny how all the attention on this Sat’s storm … but the biggest impact storm will be Sun night into Monday. Watch out for that one.
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