Storm Post Fri Evening … Full Update Sat

A Big storm is coming. It will look like winter. It will feel like winter. Some will like it. Some will not. 

There are numerous things we do know: 

1. Storm is coming and it will begin around sunrise Sun and last until midday Monday. 
2. It will start as snow/sleet and then freezing rain. It will change to rain. 
3. As upper low moves through Sun night and Mon the rain will change back to snow.
4. The storm is big, and has lots of energy. 
5. There is plenty of moisture to work with. 
6. The precipitation will be heavy Sun morning, then lighten up for the afternoon/evening. The precipitation will then increase again late Sun night into Mon. 

What we don't know: 

1. How heavy will the Sun morning precipitation be?  If it is heavy, then the precipitation could produce more snow than currently expected. 
2. How extensive will the snow be on Sun night into Monday?  This is key. If it is spotty and light, then we get only a little. But if it is extensive then we could get several inches. 

My Concerns: 

1. ​Models are underdoing the Sun morning precipitation. Some of the more small scale models are hinting at this now. There small scale models pick up on things like this, so I am beginning to wonder is this real? 
2. Models are not great at handling the back side of storms with strong upper lows. They may be underestimating the SW extent of the snow, this is our area. 
   

Both of these concerns will be answered in the next 24 hours, or should be. The heart of the snow will be in NY (thing Catskill Mtns … my childhood home).  The heart of freezing rain will be to our west (see Altoona/Johnstown etc), and the heart of the sleet if just to our north (Hazelton/Wilkes Barre

Full update with all the details coming Sat evening. 

Enjoy.