This Week ...
Then it gets challenging for Sun – Wed of next week, perhaps even longer.
- Set-up: SW trough. SE ridge.
- Moist flow brings plentiful moisture from the NE Pacific across Mexico into Texas, and up from the Gulf of Mexico.
- Cold air building in Canada.
- Split Flow: SE trough represents the southern jet, bringing moisture (#2 above). The northern jet basically cuts across US-Canadian border (#3 above).
- Two streams interact perfectly. This results in a big storm. Probably rain with heavy snow north.
- Two streams stay separate. This means most of the moisture stays south, but some comes north.
- South dominates, and we warm up and get rain.
- North dominates, and we turn cold, but basically dry.
I suspect that there will be a weak system trying to move north for Sunday, but it should stay south of us. A bigger system will move NE on Monday into Tuesday. What we get depends on the cold air or lack thereof. It’s a rain/snow/mix option or all 3 at this point, although I do lean more toward wet rather than white.
I do have some feelings about the winter though.
- It should be moist. It has been all year, esp. since June. But I see no sign of it changing. (Unless, it turns bitterly cold for an extended period in just the Great Lakes and NE. Then the moisture will be pushed away from us. I do not see that happening at this time.)
- Cold air will be available in Canada. Due to the snow cover, it will stay chilly to very cold to our north.
- Mild pacific air will try to dominate at times. Right now, we have that. It is muted in our area somewhat because of the air from Canada. But this is a theme I think will keep returning.
- Above average snow. Due to the cold air being close by in Canada, and the moisture being available we should see opportunities for snowstorms to impact us. Since we average about 3 feet a season (in valleys; more as you head north, less south) and we've had about 8" already (from Nov storm) we only need another 28" to be "normal". Remember we've had a 30" and 24" storm not long ago. One big one this year is all it might take ...