Some Sun; Some Rain. Typical Fall.

Forecasting is interesting. Especially when 24 hours before a rain event, you go more aggressive than most do, but still are underdone. While the less aggressive, come out the morning of the event and now-cast what is actually what is going on, and claim they are correct. Funny business. 

Oh, well. Sunday was very cool (got that right). It rained the steadiest before 2 pm (got that right too). But it was a tad heavier than I thought. Not bad though. 

Today should become mostly sunny. It may take some time for the low clouds to dissipate, but they will eventually. Hopefully sooner than later. 

Rain arrives again for Tue/Tue night. Wed should become breeze and cooler leading to a nice Thu and Fri. 

Fri night/Sat is now the big debate. Is there a big storm with a soaking rain?  Or is there a mere weak front and a few showers?  Despite what the majority of the models show, personally, I take the bigger storm with a soaking rain. Why? 

1. Models are notorious for dumping upper level energy that comes into Idaho/Montana,straight south into the AZ/NM. This can happen under the right circumstances. But often it is over stated. This error makes the model build a ridge in the east and eliminates the potential for a stronger storm. 
   
2.  The pattern is progressive. That means things are moving along. Therefore, the flow of energy should keep moving, not dive too far south. 
3. The GFS supports a stronger storm, but it is too far east. Typical error of this model. Sunday's rain. When Tropical storm Nestor was named, it was forecast to stay well to our SE by nearly all forecasts, but then it became clear the rains would be further north. Most models rejected this until 24 hours away. 

Perhaps you don't totally understand the above 3 points, but they all push me to lean toward a bigger storm for the weekend. Not a powerful storm, but a soaking rain looks likely to me. It could change. I acknowledge that. But right now I like the idea and am sticking with it. 

Enjoy the nicer weather today, Wed, Thu, and Fri. But also enjoy the rain Tue and Sat.