The pattern overall is going as expected. Big trough out west trying to push east, while ridge in the east is trying to hold on. The result? Much needed rains for parts of the high plains, that are helping to ease the dry to drought conditions out there. And a long dry spell of generally mild to very warm weather in the east. And Hurricane Nate is caught in between.
This means rain for everyone from the Gulf Coast up to the eastern Ohio Valley and through Maine. A soaking rain for most, and heavy rain for many. Our deficit from the last 30 days for many will be erased.
Now for us, we are off by about 2” over the last 30 days. And with us getting a good 1.5” + of rain, our “deficit” will be erased or almost erased. Personally I would not be surprised to see our area get over 2” with locally up to 4” due to the strong possibility of some thunderstorms on Monday. This would provide for some torrential rain, as we are dealing with the remnants of a tropical system. This means we will have a very moisture rich atmosphere, and combine that with the weak tropical low pressure circulation and thunderstorms will occur to the south and east of the low center. I believe the low will track right over us or just to our north. Therefore, thunderstorms will be likely later Monday, bringing some very heavy rainfall with them.
This is a good news, bad news situation:
- Good news: Very beneficial rains are coming.
- Band News: Run-off will be high due to heavy nature of some of the rain.
- Good news: Rain is likely showery, not an all-day steady rain.
- Bad News: When it rains some showers may bring strong gusty winds with them.
After Nate moves through Mon evening, the forecast gets a little more complex. We will grow a little cooler and much less humid, but the chance for showers will continue Tue, Wed, and Thu. By Friday it should clear out as high pressure takes full control. It will be cooler, but a modest warm up will begin again.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with showers. Some possible in afternoon.
Monday: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Heavy rain. Breezy. Very humid.
Tuesday: Clearing. Chance for a shower. Less humid. Mild.
Wednesday: Sun and clouds. Chance for showers.
Thursday: Sun and clouds. Chance for showers.
Friday: Mostly sunny. Seasonal.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. Seasonal.