Observations are leading me to increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into the overnight. What looked like a slight chance is borderline likely now. This morning the small area of showers and the somewhat towering cumulus to the south indicate the presence of greater instability than I first thought. With lots of sunshine early that instability will increase.
Also, the increase in moisture throughout the atmosphere (enough to rain a little early) indicates that there is plenty of moisture available. Again, sooner than I first thought.
Sunday still looks wet for the most part with showers and thunderstorms likely throughout much of the day. The threat will end by 6 pm as temperature cool off into the 60s and even drop into the upper 50s by Monday morning.
Memorial Day itself looks mainly dry with only a slight chance for a shower, or some drizzle and that is mostly early in the morning. But the presence of a lot of clouds will dampen the mood and keep it much cooler.
How much cooler? If it stays cloudy all day, it may only reach 65, but with a little sunshine/thinner clouds we'll reach 74 (which is what I think will happen).
The cool front will then lift back north and east bringing in much warmer air for Tue ahead of yet another front which will cool things off for the rest of the week. The big problem for Wed and beyond is what to do with the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto. Since the weather pattern has been rather slow to change and systems seem to want to linger in the eastern US this month, this tropical system and its moisture may linger around the east for up to a week. This could lead to a very wet period from later Wed through the first weekend in June.
At the least, enjoy today!
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.