- Long duration snow event from Tuesday morning to early morning hours of Wed.
- Snow will be mainly light, but some heavier bursts are possible.
- Unusual Snow Set-up: No strong surface low pressure at all.
- Key ingredients are a potent upper low in the Midwest, and a strong surface High in SE Canada.
- The High provides a bubble of cold stable air for warmer air to override and produce snow.
- The upper low provides a steady stream of moisture right into our area.
- Cannot overstate how important that High pressure is in making this snow possible. Without it, little snow if any at all. But with it, several inches.
- Total snow = 4-6” expected by 5 am Wed morning.
- Temperatures soar much higher than expected into the mid-30’s and the snow is wet and melts at first (VERY UNLIKELY)
- Snow could be fluffier than I have giving up deeper accumulation (UNLIKELY)
- Enhancement of moisture off the ocean from Low developing off the NC coast on Wed. This would keep us in the snow through mid-morning Wed giving us some additional snow. [One model is doing so this evening]. (POSSIBLE)
This will be our largest snow of the winter so far. It seems to be that we will be in a regional sweet-spot for this one. My confidence in the total snow is lower than usual due to the wild cards I listed above.