As you could feel, last night did not come anywhere near as cold as was expected. Mid 30s? I was kind of shocked to see 48 at 6 am this morning. The power of a west wind descending the mountains kept the air mixed and warmer. This adds some considerations for tonight and Friday morning.
First, a stronger temperature gradient is indicative of a potentially stronger storm system, greater lift, and resultant precipitation. Secondly, the warmer temperatures make snow accumulations more difficult as it melts when it falls. These both impact tonight and tomorrow mornings rain/snow event.
For tonight, with it being so warm, it will start as rain, but will change to snow. Yes, there could be some thunder too. The change-over should occur between 2 – 4 am. The snow could be heavy at times until 9 am then it should taper off giving us 2-4” with up to 6” of wet snow on the ridges, esp. north of Tremont.
Behind this snowfall is bitter cold arctic air. For January, this air would be impressive, but for March it is uncommon. We will not see temperatures rise above freezing from Friday evening – Wednesday morning of next week! If it does poke above, it will not be for long. So much for spring.
Besides the impressive cold, all eyes will turn to next Mon and Tue as the pattern becomes more amplified, and a set up with all the ingredients for a possible winter storm along the east coast. But caution must be urged. Light snow is likely Tuesday, but will we get heavy snow? That will not be answered until this weekend.
In summary, a cold stretch from Friday through the next work week is on tap. With at least some snow likely. Spring is on hold, which is a good thing. We do not need damage to our fruit trees, like we had last year.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.