Short Preview of Fall Coming

We should be back on regular schedule now that our trips are out of the way: Findlay for Quizzing Nationals, and a nice family vacation. It is difficult to forecast while away from home base. But the weather was rather repetitive: very warm and humid with sunshine.
  
If you feel that this summer has been a warm one, well you are right. It looks like it will end up in the top 2 or 3 for warmest on record for both Harrisburg and Williamsport (both sites have records back to late 1800s). So our warmth is impressive, esp. considering that we have set only one high temperature record that I am aware of, and that was a tying of an older record. In summary the warmth has been very persistent.

Rainfall has been sporadic. It has not rained for a week now. It may not rain for another week (best chance is Wed and that is not a great chance). Yet, the summer will end up on the average to above average for rainfall. Hard to believe when you think of the brown grass, the low stream flow and the shorter corn crops. But when it rained, it really came down hard and fast.

Over-all I thought summer would be warm and somewhat dry. It was warm. It was dry, yet it wasn’t.

Time to move on to first month of fall: September (a busy tropical storm month typically and as you can see the Atlantic is getting busy now. See map for details on systems. Most will not impact us directly at this time. Future ones off Africa?  Who knows.)

My fall outlook is for it to be warm; starting off dry but ending wet to possibly very wet.

• Western Atlantic/East Coast ridge should be a dominate feature. This will keep us warm and humid for much of the fall.   
• As we reside in a ridge more times than not this fall, a trough will develop to our west (already has) and will grow in strength over time.  
• Our ridge will lead to weakening/dying cold fronts that give little widespread precipitation at first, but as the cold air strengthens deeper into fall the fronts will grow stronger. This will eventually lead to heavier precipitation as moisture is pulled north from the Gulf of Mexico.

 
Current Week:
Summer continues through Wed, then a brief fall preview as the ridge breaks down, but then it rebounds very quickly next weekend, and summer returns for Labor Day.

Rainfall is very limited with one dying front moving through today, and a stronger one late Wed/Wed night. Otherwise it looks dry.

We will need to keep a watchful eye on the Atlantic Ocean for tropical mischief, as there are now 4 systems of interest. Two will have no direct impacts on us. The third probably not, and the fourth, well who knows right now.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Lots of Sunshine: Today through Wednesday.  Some puffy clouds, or wispy high clouds at times, but mostly sunny should be the sky condition.
2. Summer Continues: Today through Wednesday.  Afternoon temperatures should rise to the mid and upper 80s each day. It will be humid too.  
3. Fall Preview: Much cooler Thu into Sat. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Refreshing and dry.   

Details:

Today: 88. Partly to mostly sunny. Humid. Slight chance shower or thunderstorm late.           

Tuesday: 85. Mostly sunny. Warm.

Wednesday: 87. Mostly sunny. Warm and humid. Chance for a shower or thunderstorm late/overnight.

Thursday: 79. Partly to mostly sunny. Refreshing breeze.   

Friday: 75. Partly to mostly sunny. Refreshing.         

Saturday: 80. Partly to mostly sunny.   

Sunday: 83. Mostly sunny. Warmer.     

Labor Day: 86. Partly to mostly sunny. More humid. 

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