​Severe Weather Sunday?

The map below indicates the potential for severe weather this Sunday (tomorrow). This is from Storm Prediction Center in Norman OK. These guys are good and know their stuff. No need to panic though. Just be informed and be aware tomorrow afternoon and evening. 

Enjoy the rather uneventful weather today because tomorrow may be a little wet and noisy. Hopefully not destructive.

The slow moving front that moved through yesterday will return late tonight and early Sun morning as a warm front. There will be showers and some thunderstorms with it along with some pockets of heavy rain. Then a break in the rain will occur in the morning into the early afternoon. Then the set up for severe weather gets pretty strong for our area:

1. Deepening low pressure to our NW. This leads to pushing a strong cold front through our area late Sunday night.
2. Deep moisture pulled from the south into our area leading to heavy rain. Warm moist air is more buoyant also.
3. Upper levels go somewhat negatively tilt which maximizes lift and moisture transport.
4. Front will be approaching following the max heating of the day.

There is more, but this all points to a very active afternoon and evening on Sunday. The biggest threats from this weather is torrential rain and strong damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. There could be some hail or even a tornado, but these are much less likely than the wind and rain.

Keep an eye to the sky and be alert for severe weather that is quite likely to impact our area. There is one factor that is key and somewhat difficult to forecast: the amount of sunshine tomorrow morning and early afternoon.

The more sunshine we get the more heating and the more unstable the atmosphere gets. We won’t need much to fuel severe storms, but the more there is the greater the severe potential will be. However, at this time, I suspect there will some sun, but clouds will limited the potential (see above chart from Storm Prediction Center).
 
Rest of the Week:

After Sunday it calms down and cools down. In fact, it becomes very refreshing and rather cool by midweek, and then an attempted heating up will occur by next weekend, but I suspect the high heat of the central and western states (temps well into the 90s) will get cut off at the pass and never make it into our area. This means more rain and storms next weekend. This is a low confidence forecast though.

What I mean is this: a deep trough sets up in the east, and heat ridge over the west (imagine a mountain west and valley east) but as the week progresses that ridge will flatten some and the trough will fill some leading to a more west to east flow or zonal flow. This helps pull the hot air in the west toward the east. However, the trough in the east may not go away entirely, thus a battle ensues leading to thunderstorms. Where will this battle take place?  From the Great Lakes to either southern New England or Northern Mid Atlantic.

If we stay south of that battle line, then our temps will soar into the 90s for a couple of days next weekend, but if we are in that battle our temps will stay in the 70s. Like I said, a low confidence forecast.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Severe Weather? Yes, Sunday looks active with the potential for some severe thunderstorms. Any severe storms could contain very heavy rain, damaging winds, and a few may have hail and a brief tornado. Expect a solid 1” of rain and up to 2” by Monday morning.
2. Lowering Humidity and Temperatures: Mon – Thu. Partly to mostly sunny skies, slight chance for a shower Tue and Wed.   
3. Tropical Troubles: A new tropical low will develop in the Gulf of Mexico. Not sure if it will have time to develop into a named storm or not, but it will soak upper portions of Florida, and the SE coastline including the areas soaked by Tropical Storm Bonnie. This will not impact us at all.   
4. High Heat: In the central plains temperatures will soar to near 100 by mid and late week. This will try to come east, but the cooler air will fight it leading to clusters of storms that will move SE from the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. These could also be severe and produce very heavy rain.

 
Details:

Saturday: 80. Some partial sunshine. Humid. Showers/thunderstorms becoming likely by evening and esp. overnight.             

Sunday: 79. Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some could be severe. Very humid.

Monday: 77. Partly to mostly sunny. Breezy and less humid.           

Tuesday: 75. Partly sunny. Chance for a shower late and overnight.

Wednesday: 72. Sun then building clouds. Slight chance of a brief shower. Breezy. Cooler.      

Thursday: 71. Mostly sunny. Very pleasant and refreshing.

Friday: 78. Mostly sunny. Pleasant with low humidity.