This is the outlook coming out of the Weather Prediction Center. It shows the seriousness of this rainfall. Now please use caution: There is only a possibility of flooding. It is not certain. The certainty cannot e predicted until the event is unfolding. Read my discussion to get more details on this.
Some serious rain is headed our way. There is currently a flood watch in effect for our area and it is something to take seriously.
The storm that has caused the tornadoes and violent storms in the South Central US over the last 36 hours will grudgingly move to the north into Canada over the next couple of days. The good news is that we will not have violent storms here. But the bad part is that the flow of deep moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico will be slow to leave once it takes root in our area.
Some rain will fall Monday night and Tuesday. But it won’t be that big of a deal until Tue Night – Wed night. That is when the heavy and possibly flooding rains could occur. I expect a widespread 2-3 inches at this time. I am not convinced that thunderstorms are going to impact our area that strongly. South into Maryland and Delaware yes, but I don’t think up in our area.
The key here is that I believe that the lower level atmosphere will be stable, because the chilly air will be slow to leave. This has happened many times over the past few months. The models sweep out the cold air too fast. This means that torrential downpours from thunderstorms are unlikely. Think back to our big flooding events of the past decade: everyone had torrential rain from repeatedly being hit by big thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are a key for significant flooding. But with a stable lower atmosphere, the rain will be less convective (stormy) and more steady. It will, however, still be heavy and poses a flood threat. It is good to be aware.
Now, the rain will end by Thursday morning and leave us with a beautiful and warm day as skies go partly cloudy and temps surge into the 70s.
Now for the details:
Tonight: Some light rain around. Mostly cloudy. Cool. Low: 45.
Tuesday: Chilly with lots of clouds. Light rain on and off. Steadier rains coming in late or after dark. High: 47. Temps at night slipping a couple of degrees to near 44.
Wednesday: Heavy rains are possible. Expect around 2 inches of rain. A thunderstorm is possible, esp. evening or later. Cool but warming slightly. High: 50. Temps warm during the night and temps near 55 by morning.
Thursday: Any showers end early. Becoming partly sunny. Warm. Breezy as day wears on. High: 74. Low. 54.
Friday: Cooler but nice. Sun and clouds. High: 60. Low: 40.
Saturday-Sunday: another decent weekend. Cool for the first weekend in May though. Highs around 60 and lows into the upper 30s.
Another round of heavy rain is possible next week as we will be in the middle of the battle between very warm summer like temps to our south and chilly air to our north. It should not be a surprise. May is our wettest month on average over the many years.
My thoughts for the Month of May:
· May’s Rainfall: above average. A wet month is ahead. Esp. the first half.
· May’s Temps: Cool to start, but rebounding some in the end. Overall, below normal again.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.