September 24th, 2016

Discussion:

I am able to confirm a couple of items for you:  Cool air does exist and summer has ended (nothing to do with what the calendar says either). 

Our summer-like heat of mid and upper 80s or higher is over. I am not saying that we will not reach 80+ again, but I do not see us getting several days of summer heat anymore. That is not a bold forecast at all. It is late September, so it should be getting cooler.

Now there are other changes with the forecast that I had issued Wed. The timing of the system from the west is now Monday night into Tuesday. This should bring numerous showers to our area. I would expect about .75”; not a big rain, but a good rain.

Tough Challenge:  The upper tough may hang around and induce a storm to form near or along the east coast. This could lead to a wetter end of the week than I currently have forecast. I am including the chance for showers starting Thursday. Of course this makes the temperature forecast a little tricky too.

Once this trough lifts out by next weekend, our friendly ridge will dominate for the first full week of October.  This means we warm up.  This also means we need to keep an eye on the tropics as this pattern is conducive to the development of tropical storms.

*Please note the temperatures are given for population weighted towns, which are mainly in the valleys. So ridges and cooler locales just adjust temps down a couple of degrees.