September 06th, 2018
Changes,, andt more of the same.
That is a good summary for the next 7 days. The changes include the ending of this hot spell, and the entrance of a possible impact from a hurricane. More of the same include potential for heavy rain, and the presence of more humid weather. Let’s take it one at a time.
Before we jump on that “hype train” we have some weather to contend with: (Rant: saw a post by one meteorologist complaining about “overhyping weather” when 4 hours earlier he posted a screen shot of a video he did with the most extreme model forecast of Florence sitting just off the NJ coast pounding the region. Maybe he was complaining about himself … )
The storms that occur today/this evening will produce some very heavy rain, and will be slow moving, as the front will be stalling out. This could produce some localized flash flooding issues in the areas that get hit the hardest. I would expect on average .5” – 1” rain for most, but much more in those isolated areas. More rain is likely Fri and it too could be heavy and slow moving. Another .5” is possible for most.
Saturday and Sunday appear dry for the most part but areas of low clouds and fog on the ridges with some drizzle is possible, esp. early in the day.
Next issue is the remnants of Gordon. The good news is that the bulk of the rain will remain to our NW as the steadiest and heaviest rain moves from the Ohio Valley to the St Lawrence Valley. NW half of PA will be impacted with this steady heavy rain. The further NW, the more rain one will receive. But I am concerned about being on the SE side of a system with tropical or partial tropical origins. Thunderstorms are notorious for firing at night in tropical airmasses and the SE side is the region it usually occurs. Could they do so and impact us Sun night/early Monday?
One element that may prevent this is the fact that we will be cool/stable air dammed Sun night until the warm front lifts north on Monday.
We will know more in a couple of days regarding Gordon remnants and Florence. Until then, enjoy.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.