September 03rd, 2014
The sun is setting on Summer ...
1. August was cooler and wetter than forecast; but the idea of a change in the weather was dead on. It just came a week later. The wet part is tough to take because 3+” of rain came in one single storm. I only measured 2” more for the whole month outside that one big storm. Statistically it was wet, but the number of times it rained was lower than average.
2. For the summer as a whole: above average in rainfall, and a little above for temperatures. A lot of the temperature difference was due to some very warm nights. It was a good summer for A/C use, and for growing plants. If you looked for heatwaves, well this was not your year. Harrisburg had only one 3 day stretch of hitting 90 degrees or higher, thus making a heatwave: the first 3 days of July.
What will the Fall Bring?
1. Warm fall at least to start. It will not end warm. I expect the ridge to maintain itself with passing shots of cooler air, but unlike the summer, when it got warm you could point to the next cool shot, well for now when it gets cool you can point to the next warm burst. September will especially warm. October slightly warm, and November will probably turn a little on the cool side.
2. Fall should start on the dry side for September, but then end wet. Same idea as the temperatures. The wildcard of course is any tropical influences. Without them I expect the rainfall to end up slightly above average for the next 3 months.
The Rest of this week will feature very warm summer like weather through Saturday with highs approaching 90 for Fri and Sat (that would make 4 days approaching or hitting 90 this week. Definite change in the pattern for us). On Saturday, stronger front will approach from Canada, and bring us a likely chance of rain/storms. A weak wave of low pressure may move along the front enhancing the rain chances, but I have my doubts, because the push of cool air will be weaker, unlike the summer when the tough strongly moved into our area giving us cool air. It is a challenge to have highs in the 70s during July under lots of sunshine, but it simply “normal” for September. So with this coming weekend, the trough will push, but not as strongly only cooling us off to typical September temps, therefore I do expect some rain, but not a lot at this time.
Today: less humid but still warm with highs into the low 80s. Lows into the mid-50s tonight.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, very pleasant, but very warm. Highs near 85. Lows near 60.
Friday – Saturday: Turning more humid, esp. Sat. Mostly sunny and hot. Highs near 90, lows near 67. Afternoon Thunderstorms likely Saturday and more showers/rain Saturday night.
Sunday: Much cooler and less humid. Mostly sunny, highs in the mid-70s, lows down to 50.
Monday – Tuesday: Mostly sunny, beautiful early fall weather. Highs: 75-78, lows 47-50. A warm-up will begin Tuesday as the next trough digs into the western US and a ridge builds into the east and heat builds to our south. Expect more above average temps for the second half of next week.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.