Quick Monday Morning Update

Forecast changes below in RED

Forecast in good shape, except for Tue. Coastal storm will be closer and bring us a decent rain starting very late tonight through midday tomorrow. It shouldn't be all that heavy, just steady in the morning tapering off to showers by afternoon. Expect about .75" of inch or so of rain. It will be cool. 

Rest of forecast looks good. Will nudge temps down a little Wed due to NW flow behind depart storm from Tue. Thu should warm up ahead of next system. 

Chilly weekend. Snow showers possible in the mountains to our west. Light sprinkle possible Sat here. 

Enjoy the sunshine today. 

The amazing warm weather is now history, and more typical weather is returning. It will turn mild again the middle of next week as a big storm wraps up in the Great Lakes and pulls warm air north, but nothing like we had this week.

The over-all pattern will remain the same. A trough in the west and ridge in the east.  Storms come east, and depending on their strength will pull moisture into our area. Some storms like yesterdays will not bring us much as the support for the rain fades as it comes east. Others like next Thu will bring more rain as it has more support. But the pattern remains the same. Trough west. Ridge east.

As individual systems move through, the ridge will build back in.  But there are subtle changes occurring. The tough is deeper and further east. This might be pointing to the idea of a trough undercutting the ridge in the east. This could lead to blocking. A southern storm track sitting south of consistent areas of high pressure. This would mean stormy from California to North Carolina with lots of rain. It would mean a mild northern half of the USA, but cool enough to have snow when the storms lift further north. Again, this might develop as we head toward Dec. Not convinced of it. But the seeds of it are possibly being planted at this time.

For the rest of this month, it should be mild. Dry is the word for the over whelming number of days, however, when it does decide to rain, it could be heavy.
 
My Weather Points for the Next Week:

1. Rain: A coastal low will try to spin up off the NC coast and push moisture our way. The rain ought to stay to our east, but I cannot totally rule out a shower. The increase in clouds will keep Tue cooler. This will pull away for Wed, and we remain dry until Thursday.  Some rain likely Thu/Thu night.
2. Up and Down Temps: Seasonal this weekend, then back into the mild mid-60s Thu. Maybe a run to 70 prior to front moving through Thur. Cooler Fri and into next weekend.
3. Sunshine: Lots of sun Sunday, Monday, and partly sunny Tue and Wed (due to coastal low trying to develop), possibly Fri, then sunny Sat and Sun.   
4. Windy: It should be quite breezy Thu and Fri as strong storm moves to by us to our NW through the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec.   

 
Monday: 55. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
                    
Tuesday: 54. Mostly cloudy rain tapering to showers. 
  
Wednesday: 59. Partly to mostly sunny. 

Thursday: 65. Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Showers arriving.           

Friday: 58. Partly sunny. Windy. Cooler.

Saturday: 49. Breezy. Sun and clouds. Light sprinkle. Cool. 

Sunday: 49. Sunny. Cool. 

      

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