Saturday Morning Aug 27, 2015

Hot weather. Humid weather. Last summer season style. Here are some considerations:  

1.      Heat: 10 days starting Sunday temps could average a high very close to 90.  Hottest days  look to be Tue – Thu then again next Mon (Labor Day) and next Tue.  Just so you have a feel about  temps here, our average high is 80 on Sept 1 and then drops to 76 by the 11th. So we will be WELL above average.

2.      Cool Change Coming? A more typical Sept temp pattern may emerge by the 10th. Not convinced it will last, as a ridge may easily return with above average temps.

3.      Tropical Storm Erika:  The Caribbean Sea is a dangerous place for a Tropical storm to try and strengthen due to the strong El Nino. Lots of wind shear, which will tear a storm apart. Erika is barely hanging on. This is a good thing, as it will mainly be a breezy rain maker. Erika will likely reorganize and strengthen some in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Making landfall in the Fla panhandle. Will moisture from her make it up our way?  Not sure yet. It is possible. But if it does not by Thu, then it will be blocked by a new surface high pressure.

4.      Rain: Slight chance Sun and Mon, then Thu (unless moisture from Erika moves in then soaking, but doubtful at this time). Otherwise dry for the next 10 days.

5.      Dry Ground: Many areas have not had rain since Mon or last Thu. With a likelihood of no widespread rain through most of next week, the ground will get very dry at the surface, which leads to warmer surface temps. The suns energy will not be used up to evaporate water, it will simply heat the ground. Dry ground warms faster than moist ground, thus my temps are a little higher by a couple of degrees.  

6.      Cool August? Not interpretation, but facts. The only stations that I have data for show that Altoona is the only station east of the mountains that is below average for this month in the state of PA (State College likely be the same). And Altoona may end up average or slightly above due to the heat coming the last few days of August. It has been cool in the center of the US, mountains west. But the east has been mild to warm, with above average temps for the month.

Saturday: 85. Mostly sunny.

Sunday: 87. Mostly sunny. Slight chance shower/storm. Humid.

Monday: 88. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Slight chance shower/storm         

Tuesday: 91. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.

Wednesday: 92. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.

Thursday: 92. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Slight chance shower/storm.

Friday: 88. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.         

Saturday: 88. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.

Sunday: 88. Mostly sunny.  Hot. Humid.

Monday: 90. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.