It is getting milder. The snow is melting and rain is on the way. Then it will get colder. Not severe. Nothing like we’ve had, just average winter cold. Then it warms up again and rains. Then it grows colder with average cold and maybe another warm up and rain, before we slide back into a sustained cold pattern.
So I guess this is our thaw. Call it what you want, but I find it a continuation of the basic pattern we’ve had since November.
We got cold in November, then it warmed up into early December, then it grew colder for the middle part until the week before Christmas and grew mild, and then the cold took over until now. Each time the cold domination eased off, the pattern became like a roller coaster where it warmed, then cooled, then warmed, then cooled every 3-5 days. No dominance of warm or cold, although the warmth outduels the cold in such patterns. This has happened twice already this winter. And now for the next 12 days or so the same idea will again occur.
I do not see it as a major pattern change. Just a relaxation of the pattern. It will then likely flex its muscles again in February leading to more cold weather and snow.
I am not a long-range forecaster, but I do recognize repeated patterns. I saw it last winter and it served me well when models tried to bring in lasting cold weather, and I rejected it because of the pattern we were in. It worked, and it is so far working this year.
How is it working? Well, this much promoted (by some) “huge thaw” was to begin last weekend … then Wednesday … then Friday … well, now it started today (Sat). It was originally to last up to 3 weeks … but now its down to 10-15 days. And even then, not every day will be warm. The repeated pattern showed this to be the case.
So, get out and enjoy the milder temperatures. No serious cold for the next 10-15 days. Pretty nice for later January.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.