Rising out of the Deep Freeze

You must respect the power of clear skies and snow cover, especially when you live in a valley.  When you do, always go lower on the temperatures than computer model guidance. That is why I made the comment I did on Thu about temperatures dropping faster overnight.

Result? Well, we just had our 3rd morning in a row of being below zero. The last 4 mornings have been quite something: 1, -12, -7, -2.  Snow cover makes a big difference. Same will hold true tonight (not below zero but mid teens in deeper valleys which is about 5 - 10 degrees below computer guidance). 

This weekends forecast is well in hand, so I will skip to Monday and beyond for discussion.

1. Monday: A mild day. Only question is due to a narrow wedge of high pressure over our area, do we rise to 53?  Or do we stay cooler, like 45, because the atmosphere is stable, with coolest air at the surface? 
2. Tuesday: Front passes through early. But models notorious at rushing colder air in too fast for our area. Do we reach 50 before temperatures start falling?
3. Wednesday: Much colder. Dry daytime. Freezing rain/sleet arrive overnight.
4. Thursday: Raw and damp with any freezing rain/sleet changing to all rain early. Rain most of the day on and off. A soaking rain of 1” or more is likely. Yuk.
5. Friday: Q1: Do we get into the warm air before the arctic front passes through?  If yes, then 55 or higher is possible. But if not, then 45 is about it.  

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In summary our “warm” spell is going to consist of two mild/warm days: Mon, Tue. Then two seasonal days: Wed, Thu. Ending with a mild/warm Fri. Then its back to cold.  Sounds like a typical mild winter break if you ask me. Nothing shocking nor noteworthy. Happens every year in some form.  No, winter is not over.  

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