You must respect the power of clear skies and snow cover, especially when you live in a valley. When you do, always go lower on the temperatures than computer model guidance. That is why I made the comment I did on Thu about temperatures dropping faster overnight.
Result? Well, we just had our 3rd morning in a row of being below zero. The last 4 mornings have been quite something: 1, -12, -7, -2. Snow cover makes a big difference. Same will hold true tonight (not below zero but mid teens in deeper valleys which is about 5 - 10 degrees below computer guidance).
This weekends forecast is well in hand, so I will skip to Monday and beyond for discussion.
In summary our “warm” spell is going to consist of two mild/warm days: Mon, Tue. Then two seasonal days: Wed, Thu. Ending with a mild/warm Fri. Then its back to cold. Sounds like a typical mild winter break if you ask me. Nothing shocking nor noteworthy. Happens every year in some form. No, winter is not over.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.