We got a real good soaking last Wed, and will just miss another soaker. I mentioned on Friday that the storm was too far south on the models. And it appears I was right, but I was incorrect in bringing it this far north. Never thought it would be rain storm for northern New England. So it’s coming north, just not as far as I thought. The rain will not be all that far away. So lots of clouds for Monday. Any additional shift north and it rains. Stay tuned.
One must remember initially models had this storm heading out to sea with the rain only reaching Norfolk. Now Norfolk is in the heart of the heaviest rain, or looks to be. There still is room for it to come a little further north yet. But not enough to bring a soaking rain to our parts. Which is ok. We're wet right now anyhow.
This storm for Monday will likely be an example of the forecasting headaches this winter season. Southern storms coming north. But how far north? Models will not do well. So it will be fun.
After the storm leaves on Monday night, we get a real treat: Warm and dry. 60s to near 70 Tue – Fri. Turning colder next weekend. Toughs will not have staying power as the main trough position is in the west/SW and the mean ridge is over the SE. This means a mild to warm Nov is likely. It will also be on the moist side over-all.
My Weather Points for this Week:
- Rain: Best chance will be next weekend. Sunday seems most likely. At least showers/thunderstorm with front on Sunday. There might be a few showers moving up from the south on Thursday as moisture lurks to our south. I doubt it makes it this far north, but there is a slight chance it could.
- Balmy: It will turn very mild next week. Temps running toward 70 Wed – Fri. Not that excited about how “cold” it gets behind front. It will cool down next weekend, but it will not have any staying power. We warm up the second week in Nov too.
- Sunshine: Tue – Fri should be at least partly sunny.
Today: 62. Becoming partly sunny.
Monday: 62. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Rain in Maryland.
Tuesday: 68. Mostly sunny. Warm.
Wednesday: 70. Mostly sunny. Warm.
Thursday: 65. Partly to mostly sunny. Warm. Light shower?
Friday: 70. Partly sunny. Increasing clouds. Breezy. Showers/storm likely after dark.
Saturday: 58. Decreasing clouds. Gusty NW wind. Cooler.
Sunday: 52. Mostly sunny. Cool but pleasant.